Trump’s press conferences, after the results of the midterm elections were disseminated, transformed into a battlefield. The President disqualified and insulted press correspondents, and withdrew the credentials of CNN journalist Jim Acosta.
CNN’s lawyers went to federal court to demand the reinstatement of Acosta’s credentials. The judge provisionally agreed to the lawyer’s request, and summoned the administration to prove in court the causes that could justify such resolution. After all, the latter not only interferes with the exercise of the free press, but also with that of the audiences to be informed.
While waging a fight in the media, the renowned statistician Nate Silver divulged his analysis on the results of the midterm elections. His devastating conclusion: Trump’s electoral base isn’t enough for Republicans to retain power or grow as an organization. This election set a new record. For the first time, the total national votes of the party that took control of the House of Representatives is superior to that of the President two years earlier. In this case, the Democrats obtained near 64 million votes. On the other hand, Trump obtained 62.9 million votes in 2016—already inferior to the 65 million votes in favor of Hillary Clinton. To illustrate what this means, a debacle of this magnitude had only occurred in 1970 after the Watergate scandal that ended Nixon’s presidency. Two years before this affair broke out, Nixon had been reelected with 31 million votes, and the Democratic Party gained control of the House with margins similar to this year’s with almost 30 million votes.
On the other hand, there’s the very complicated issue of the social sources of Republican support. Trump’s party was defeated in all sectors of the population by ethnic group, except the white vote. The votes against Trump and Republicans was, 61% of Native Americans; 73% of Latinos; 90% of African-American; and 72% of Asian-American, according to the most prestigious studies done at the polls or after the elections. Trump and his party only managed to obtain 52% of the White or Caucasian vote. Even then, they had very weak support among women and young people in particular, and White voters with a university education in general. Among Latinos, nationally 73% voted for Democrats according to a survey conducted by Latino Decisions—a pollster of immense prestige. Even with the traditional Republican Cuban-American vote in Miami, Democrats and Republicans shared the vote equally. And yet, the younger the voter of Cuban descent, the more inclined to vote Democrat.
Demographic tendencies in the U.S. are of key importance of electoral politics. PEW Center and Brookings Institution demographic studies project that, by 2045, the White or ethnically Caucasian population will be less than 50% of the total American population. Accordingly, Trump and his acolytes’ strategy in the Republican Party (there are many potent voices in the party against this process) is suicidal. To illustrate, the defeat of the Democratic candidates for governor and Senator in Florida were minimal. For those races, a final and large volume of votes couldn’t be rightfully counted, because of legal deadlines granted to Broward County. Even so, Republicans lost two seats in Miami that were under their control. Furthermore, victories in many states, such as Georgia and Indiana, were preceded by questionable electoral registry purging processes. In New England states, Republicans didn’t get a single Representative to Congress. In the Democratic bastion that is California, Republicans were also left without a single congressman in Orange County—were they still had a solid electoral base. By studying the case of California, it is clear where the Republican Party is headed. In 2002, they had 20 Members of the House of Representatives; now they only have 8. Meanwhile, the Democratic representation increased from 33 to 45. In addition, the race for U.S. Senator in California was between two Democrats, whom together got 85% of the votes. Faced with this reality, the Republican strategy for the past three decades has consisted of “Gerrymandering” around the country in states that they control. Not withstanding this reality and the growing economy, even that institutional advantage couldn’t avoid the record-breaking Democratic control of the House.
Likewise, the turn towards the Democratic candidates in Nevada and Arizona doesn’t illustrate an auspicious map for Trump’s reelection. Add to that the consolidation of power of said party in the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. In these three states, Democrats won the governor, senate and most legislative elections— both at the state level and in the delegations of representatives to the Congress.
Nonetheless, Trump doesn’t let his guard down. He insists on his script of categorizing the free press as the public enemy. He says his triumph in the Senate is historical, when in reality republicans already controlled the Upper House. There, they hadn’t lost, in places like Arizona, a Senator for 23 years; or hadn’t seen the phenomenon of two U.S. Senators of Nevada and the regional government in Democratic hands at the same time. Trump insists on his discourse thinking that he mobilizes his voters, but does not foresee the cost. And inside his bubble believes that he must silence or reduce the free press.
Faced with this scenario, retired admiral William McRaven—among many things, a national hero because he commanded the historic mission that captured and ended the life of Osama Bin Laden—said this week, in a conference before the students of the University of Texas, that the divisive speech and the attacks on the free press by Trump were the greatest threat against the Constitution and the institutions he had known in his long career as a soldier and public servant. Trump’s response in an interview on Fox was to lash out at the admiral, accuse him without proof of being biased towards Obama and Clinton, and question his performance in the fight against Al-Qaeda, “Wouldn’t it have been nice if we got Osama bin Laden a lot sooner than that.” The public listened perplexed. And as the week came to a close and everyone thought that the worst was left behind, Trump decided to attack and insult the Federal Appeals Judge of the ninth circuit (San Francisco, California). The Judge decided not to apply the administration’s Executive Order that prohibited processing asylum applications of immigrants arriving at the border. In his attack, Trump went so far as to say that judges don’t know anything about security and that this particular was an Obama judge. Given the irrationality and unconstitutionality of this behavior, which seeks to interfere with the autonomy of the judiciary, Chief Justice of the United States John Roberts intervened. Roberts (of conservative affiliation, by the way) responded with an energetic appeal to the President demanding respect for the basic principle of separation of powers; and Trump escalated his attack on Judge Roberts himself.
The drama is not only that Trump confines his party to an extreme with evident electoral costs, but also that he imposes a conduct that undermines American institutions, as well as decreases global leadership of the U.S. Therefore, every day there seems to be more Republicans considering whether it will be necessary to oppose Trump, within the party, and defeat him in a primary in 2020. However, polls in that area indicate that still a majority of the voters registered in the Republican Party want Trump re-elected, despite having 60% rejection in the national average.
One thing is clear: Trump is doing a lot of damage to the future of his party and that of national institutions. Most regrettably, he is not alone in that purpose within the Republican scope. Those who second Trump, while having a full and critical perception of the damage the current occupant of the White House could cause, don’t separate themselves from a person and a strategy that isolates them from reality. There is a lot more at stake than the dissidence of the Republican Party itself; even more than the country, put at risk in meaningless fights. What is being risked is the global security, given the relevance of the United States in the world. After this month’s election, Republicans are left with an individual vote left to make: an internal plebiscite, in which they must confront their conscience.
Para español lea AL Navío: El nuevo mapa electoral de EEUU le complica la reelección a Donald Trump.
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