Trump begins to operate in a different scenario: with the House of Representatives under Democrat control. Precisely, in that delicate crossroads, his White House Chief of Staff John Kelly retires. Furthermore, the young Republican and Chief of Staff to Vice President Pence, Nick Ayers, rejects the open position passing on what, more than a promotion, is the most important position in the country (and the world), as well as most powerful in the White House. Instead, at 36 years, Ayers announced he would serve his current position until December 2018 and then move back to his native Georgia to define his next step. How to explain all this?
There’s a lot of speculation around the growing tensions between general Kelly and Trump. Kelly was instrumental in the cruel family separation policies at the Southern border, which decreased his fondness in the Latino community and other sectors of the country. However, he has many confrontations with Trump. They have to do with the improvisation with which the President handles himself, as well as with the undermining of the institutions Trump provoked with attacks to the Supreme Court and the intelligence community. More concretely, with how Trump proceeded in regard to the events in Charlottesville, Virginia, when he equaled both sides of the protest, legitimizing white supremacist groups linked to the Ku-Klux-Klan.
Months ago, Republican Senator Bob Corker, who will retire in December and has been the voice of reason and influence in his party and conservative groups, said that three people separate Trump’s administration from chaos: Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, White House Chief of Staff general John Kelly, and Secretary of Defense general Mattis. The first two are no longer there. Last week, Tillerson broke his nine-month silence to affirm that Trump is “pretty undisciplined, doesn’t like to read, doesn’t read briefing reports, doesn’t like to get into the details of a lot of things, but rather says ‘this is what I believe, and you can try to convince me otherwise, but most of the time you’re not going to do that.’” He left the most serious for the end: “we did not have a common value system,” given that from Tillerson’s perspective, Trump has trouble abiding his analysis and solutions to the law.
As expected, Trump immediately disqualified Tillerson. Through a Tweet, he embarrassed himself by stating that this man—with a successful career who entered as a young executive and later became the CEO of Exxon-Mobile, one of the world’s most important multinational companies—is “dumb as a rock.” Comments strike.
The truth is that the next and powerful White House Chief of Staff faces a perfect storm. An adverse parliament, willing to exercise it’s controlling and scrutinizing capacity; an increasingly compromising investigation of the prosecutor Mueller; and an economy that, despite its good situation, begins to fit the negative impact of tax cuts, which have substantially increased the fiscal deficit. To make matters worse, there’s also the trade war with China, which generates immense uncertainty for vital U.S. sectors, such as the technology one. And, of course, the rise of interest rates, which creates—very reasonable—expectations of slowing down the economy.
All of this, with the presidential elections at the door, after an electoral defeat in the midterms of a rotundity not seen since the Watergate scandal in 1970. Last month Democrats drew more votes than those who gave the Presidency to Trump in 2016. It is very difficult to imagine this setback, since such high levels of electoral participation are only conceived in presidential elections (and not in midterm elections, as in this case).
In his first steps after the storm broke, Trump opened the front of talks with the Democratic majority in Congress, who has to discuss and approve the budget. He offered an absurd approach: spend the first 5 billion in the construction of a wall in the border with Mexico, which in his electoral demagogy Trump said would pay for it. Otherwise, he would arrange not to negotiate any agreement, thus shutting down the federal government. Now we can better comprehend why Kelly left, why Ayers said no to the vacancy, and why Tillerson was out in March.
Will all of this impact the rest of the Republican and Cabinet leadership? Further, will new defections come from the Government? Finally, will other Republican senators raise similar issues to that of both Kelly and Tillerson?
Senator Kamala Harris gave Trunp the first answer in a blunt tweet: you can’t justify the disbursement of 5 billion dollars on a wall (which in our opinion, is simply a monument to xenophobia), instead of—as the senator and possible candidate for the Presidency says—investing them in road infrastructure, production support, public health and other labor benefits. Democratic Senator Schummer (minority leader in the Senate) and Representative Nancy Pelosi, who will chair the House of Representatives once more, came out of a meeting with Trump clearly saying: We have presented two very sensible options to the President in budgetary matters, there is no need to block the game and shut down the government. The President is exclusively responsible if he insists on his position.
This is how the political scenario of the United States is shaping at the end of the year, anticipating that the conflict and dysfunction that Trump has engendered in Washington will continue during 2019. What consoles our worries is the certainty that it won’t be boring.
Para español lea Al Navío: El juego peligroso que le espera a Donald Trump en 2019
Nos leemos por twitter @lecumberry