The electoral earthquake in El Salvador exceeded all expectations. For the past six or seven months, independent pollsters projected Nayib Bukele, only 37 years old, would win. However, it was not very evident that his triumph would come with about 54% of the votes. Therefore, not having a second round election, like many were expecting.
Breaking the Bipartisan Democracy
The surprise does not end there. Bukele’s triumph was as impacting as Hugo Martínez’s—the candidate for the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front, FMLN—downfall; not even adding 14% of the votes. Another significant aspect, which analysts should not overlook, is that Carlos Calleja—the candidate for the National Republican Alliance, ARENA—obtained around 32% of the votes. This demonstrates that his partisan machinery is still organized and operating.
Observed together, these results refer us to two conclusions of great significance to think about the present and the future of El Salvador. The first is that Bukele and the GANA party have been able to break the crushing weight of the polarization, between ARENA and the FMLN, which has been the symbol of Salvadoran politics in recent decades. Since June 1989, six governments have succeeded each other. The first four were ARENA leaders—Alfredo Cristiani, Armando Calderón Sol, Francisco Flores and Elías Antonio Saca—, and the other two belong to the FMLN—Mauricio Funes and Salvador Sánchez Cerén. The latter will turn over the presidential band to Bukele, next June 1st.
The second conclusion is that the center-right and right wing votes—those for GANA/Bukele and ARENA/Callejas, respectively—together surpass 85% of the votes. In the immediate future, El Salvador has broken ties with the left represented by the FMLN. This defeat has important echoes in countries such as Nicaragua, Cuba, Venezuela, and Bolivia, because they will lose the vote and the voice of a country that supported them in the OAS and other forums.
Another population tired of corruption
Between 1980 and 1992, there was a bloody civil war in El Salvador, which was kept Latin America concerned, longing to learn how it would end. The civil war’s casualties are shocking: 75 thousand people lost their lives in those almost 12 years. Five guerrilla organizations led an armed conflict to confront the Revolutionary Government Junta, a military regime that took power in that country in October 1979, after overthrowing President Carlos Humberto Romero. After the signing of the Chapultepec Peace Accords in January 1992, Salvadoran political processes have been staged as a constant confrontation between left and right. Bukele, a businessman born in 1981, who was part of the FMLN, was expelled from that party in 2017. In March 2015, he became Mayor of San Salvador, the capital of the country, after defeating the ARENA candidate. After being expelled from the FMLN, his popularity was not affected, but grew until his overwhelming electoral victory.
The Bukele phenomenon is an expression of the exhaustion tendency among the Salvadoran voters. The last three presidents before the incumbent, two ARENA and one FMLN members, have been accused of corruption. In fact, right now, Mauricio Funes (FMLN), who governed between June 2009 and June 2014, fled the law and found refuge in Daniel Ortega’s Nicaragua. These actions are dangerously undermining the credibility of the political parties, institutions, and the very exercise of politics.
The exhaustion is particularly concerning. El Salvador has paid blood and suffering to build democratic institutions after signing the peace treaty. However, many believe corruption exceeded its citizens’ patience. Similar to other countries in Latin America, there is an increasingly widespread generalization that associates politics with corruption. In addition, there is also the belief that governments are powerless against the serious issues that affect the country: violence, which has made the Salvadoran gangs known worldwide; weaknesses in the functioning of the economy; the deep flaws of the health and education systems; and, tied to all the above, the extreme reality of inequality.
Salvadoran “Maras” or Gangs
On the morning of March 3, 2016, one of the most daunting and emblematic events in the recent history of El Salvador took place. Members of one of the big gangs, known as 18-Revolutionaries, went to Opico—a territory that belongs to their main enemy: the Mara Salvatrucha or MS-13. They moved to the site in order to settle accounts. However, they did not find their enemies. In their journey they ran into 8 workers, who were installing poles for power lines, and three other people, who were walking towards their jobs. The gang captured the 11 people, tied their hands, threw them on the ground face down, and killed them with bullets and machetes. In the middle of the killing, one of the assassins activated the camera of his cell phone and recorded the scene of the execution, while laughing. The following month, the video began to circulate through the social networks, causing a commotion in the country similar to that produced by the beheading videos taken by Islamic State members (ISIS).
The murder in Opico is one of the most tragic moments in Salvadoran society since, in the mid-1980s, the first gangs were formed, such as Mara Chancleta and Mara Gallo, before they expanded and changed their names. Studies and journalistic reports repeat that one of the fundamental factors that birthed the gang phenomenon was the abandoned children or orphans of the civil war, who grew up in an environment where weapons, violence and death were common. It is estimated that, in five years, the gangs could have killed more than 35 thousand people. El Salvador surpasses Honduras and Guatemala in homicide rate rankings. Approximately 60 thousand young people are members or collaborators of the gangs.
Other Salvadoran Struggles
On top of a daily life under constant terror, there are other problems that are overwhelming. Between 30 and 40% of the population lives in poverty, according to the different methodologies that are applied to measure it. The average economic growth for the last decade, 2.6% annually, has barely made possible some minimal reductions in inequality, income and access to services. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate stands at about 7%, but is twice that for the youth: some estimate it exceeds 14%. In addition, the World Bank indicated that the GDP outlook towards 2019 and 2020 is downward: 2.5 and 2.4, respectively. If these figures are contrasted with those that say that approximately 30% of Salvadoran families live off income generated by gangs, the gravity and depth of gangs in Salvadoran society can be understood.
In demographic terms, El Salvador is a country of young people: 60% of the population is under 35 years old. To this reality corresponds other regrettable ones: the state of the Salvadoran educational system, crushed by realities such as school dropout, low level of teachers, obsolete pedagogical methods, violence within schools, school infrastructure in poor condition, lack of classroom tools, and many other shortcomings. There are experts who point out that public education is classist and that its results are below the minimum necessary. In 2016, for example, less than 9% of students who came from public schools and who presented entrance tests for the University of El Salvador passed the test.
Paradoxically, the labor market requires a high school degree for basic and poorly paid jobs. In rural areas, these problems intensify to unusual levels. More than 98% of children and young people who work and study live in rural areas. Before starting high school, they find themselves forced to leave school to join tasks that generate income—essential for subsistence. Young people who aspire to get a job must inevitably migrate to urban areas. Otherwise, there is no alternative but to engage in agricultural or livestock jobs, and live an existence of hunger and hardship.
Various estimates, both from Salvadoran State agencies and from US entities, have indicated that three million Salvadorans live in the United States today. In 2017 and 2018, the annual amount of remittances sent to their country exceeded $5 billion, equal to no less than 18% of El Salvador’s GDP. All this explains why, for the vast majority of young people in that country, the first of their dreams is to migrate to the United States, under any circumstances.
Conquering Hope and Democracy
Nayib Bukele has an immense responsibility in his hands. Among his most important tasks, he has to prevent and punish corruption, to lead a transparent administration, to create the necessary conditions to stimulate private investments—Salvadoran or foreign—, and to respond to the immense difficulties that punish the potential and opportunities of the younger. That Bukele has managed to break the bipolar scheme is an important first step. But this cannot remain as an unfulfilled promise. It cannot be postponed. The next four years should conquer Salvadorans for hope and democracy.