This is a good time to bring forth a better perspective about the optics and politics of Mexican President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador’s (AMLO) visit to DC and his meetings with President Trump.
It must be said that any Head of State visit has a lasting positive impact when designed in a way that is timely and bipartisan in its reach. Nothing like that can be said of AMLO’s visit with Trump. To the contrary, the timing, and agenda of the visit, ended up playing into Trumpian political logic (overshadowing the USMCA trade agreement itself), making this visit, like everything Trump does, about him and his electoral strategy. And AMLO caved.
All Trump wanted was to alienate Democrats (whose votes in the House of Representatives were essential to get USCMA passed), get a few campaign soundbites and photo opportunities, abusing of his office like every other Caudillo, to play electoral politics with a demographic consistently and unjustly attacked by Trump’s rhetoric and actions as President. And he did.
But what did AMLO get? He surely offended many of his own people in the United States when delivering his remarks at the White House, praising the man that has called Mexican immigrants (and all Latinos for that matter) rapist and criminals. But the two populists played their politics. AMLO showed his detractors in Mexico (and the business community) that in spite of all the differences they share, and against all odds, he did not become an obstacle to the vital trade and investment relation between the two countries. And beyond NAFTA’s rebranding and continuation (with some amendments) as USMCA, these two apparent antipodes (united by the same populist playbook) can continue their course without jeopardizing the fundamental economics of the bilateral relation as expressed in the agreements that makes each country the other’s largest trade partner.
However, did this work for the politics of the long term relation? Was AMLO’s non-bipartisan move and agenda, in the middle of an election year, which according to the polls is likely to be won by Democrat Joe Biden, a good idea for the future? It could be said that AMLO’s team’s calculation was that he had nothing to lose because Democrats (and of all, Joe Biden a prime example) engage in value driven foreign policy, and they do understand the significance of the bilateral relation, as well as their intrinsic connection to the Mexican-American community. Therefore AMLO, just like his populist counterpart from the other side of the political spectrum, is only thinking in short term political objectives. Let Trump be Trump, while he accomplished what his team needed, a signal to the Mexican economy that the US-Mexico business relations continues as usual.
One thing is clear: Trump is building the wall and, in any event, México won’t pay for it. However, free trade with Mexico continues as usual (with some adjustments), and one stipulation by AMLO was that he will continue to enforce strong migration controls in the southern border of Mexico, or at least deliver the optics that he is doing so to feed into Trump’s narrative for his anti-immigrant base of support. But more than migration controls, it is USMCA or trade that works (once denounced by Trump as evil). According to PEW Research numbers, while the economic and trade dynamics between the two countries continues as framed under NAFTA (now USMCA), undocumented immigrants flow from Mexico is not really increasing, but rather declining.
But did Trump gain something? He has some soundbites and photos with AMLO, but initial polling already indicates that this did not work well for Trump. The takeaways from data published by REFORMA in Mexico indicate that the vast majority of Mexicans (69%) think that electing Biden over Trump will be better for México, with as much as 90% rejecting Trump’s re-election, although the majority agrees it was good for Mexico that AMLO met with Trump. Regarding the visit itself, overall, a majority of Mexicans (64%) support López Obrador’s decision to travel to Washington to visit Trump. However, 45% of Mexicans believe that Trump has continued using an offensive tone against Mexico during the past few months. Regarding USMCA and trade, just days after its entry into force on July 1, an overwhelming majority of Mexicans (75%) view it as a positive agreement.
On the other hand, in the United States, Latino Decision’s polling indicate that 63% support Biden, with Trump’s approval at 25%. 43% see him as hostile towards Latinos, and 32% say that he doesn’t care about Latinos. Looking at those numbers, it is improbable that the photo-ops and soundbites with AMLO could help Trump, much more when taking into account that AMLO is a polarizing figure among Mexicans and in Mexico.
In sum, the meeting appeared to work for AMLO, based on political expediency, but U.S. Latinos in the United States (and the people of México) can’t be fooled by Trump.
Photo: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters