A first glance on the midterm elections confirms that, in the middle of an unproblematic economy and despite the “Gerrymandering,” which favors votes for Republicans, Trump and his party lost control of the Congress. Even though the Senate is still under Republican majority, there are important checks and balances in the legislative branch.
The Democrats are back in The House: The issues Americans Voted For
Why did this happen? First, the transversal preoccupation in the national average is the urgency of retaking a course-of-action that guarantees social cohesion of the United States. Xenophobia and racism, fueled by Trump’s rhetoric, echo in some regions of the electoral map, but are strongly rejected in the country. The arbitrary style used to exercise power, to the detriment of institutions (including the scandal that surrounds the White House from day one), is perceived by their loyal followers as a manipulation of the mainstream media, whose reporters Trump has dangerously labeled “public enemies.” This risky atmosphere has caused anxiety and rejection throughout the country.
Another prevalent issue amongst Democrat-candidate voters was an instinct to preserve the social achievements, such as healthcare coverage, or respect for minorities’ civil rights. Similarly, the notion of an advancing agenda to serve the big corporation interests (instead of the biggest needs and aspirations of the citizens) was also present in the vote. Also, the advancement of a religiously conservative agenda (reflected in the Justices appointments) moved many citizens, creating additional social tensions to those stated.
What was at Play in the Senate
However, Trump managed to retain the control of the Senate, and somebody may wonder how this could have occurred given the contrast with what has already been exposed. There’s one reason for that. Only a third of the Upper House was up for reelection; and this electoral map was especially adverse to the Democrats because of the way the regional electoral preference has been diving. The Democrats has to defend the seats of Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota and West Virginia—Republican bastions won over with Barak Obama’s popular reelection in 2012. If Trump’s national average is 40% of acceptance and 60% of rejection, in those states it’s exactly the opposite. Democrats were able to keep only one (West Virginia) of those four states. To make up for it, they had to win in three states of pendulum swing: Arizona, Nevada and Florida, in addition to Texas, one of the most consolidated Republican strongholds to date in the country. The Democrats won Nevada and Arizona (for the first time a state-wide official in 25 years), but lost Texas.
Florida is now under a mandatory vote recount to decide the Senator and Governor disputed by margins of less than 1% difference. It’s worth remembering, as if it weren’t enough, that in those states, as well as in Georgia, the electoral authorities in charge of the Republican governorships purged the electoral registers or hindered the registration of thousands of voters. Only in Indiana 470 thousand citizens were excluded from registration! In Texas, Beto O’Rourke lost the election by 270 thousand votes, but between 2012 and 2014 the state electoral authority in Republican hands purged 360,000 voters from the registry. In Georgia, Democratic candidate Stacey Abrahams (who would have been the first African-American woman to be elected State Governor), lost the election by 75,300 votes, but her own proclaimed winner ran the electoral registry as Secretary of State, and prevented registration of 53,000 new voters (mostly African-American and Latino), and between 2013-2017 made a purge of the electoral registry that excluded 1.3 million voters; just last year it excluded 600 thousand voters!
This control of the Senate, by reaching states with great loyalty to the Republican franchise and the Trump brand, is an objective in the strategy of the White House advisors. Trump wants to put a strong hand on the Justice Department and this is allows him to do so. In fact, last week he requested the resignation of Attorney General Jeff Sessions and will soon propose his replacement with someone more loyal to his agenda to dismantle the work of Attorney Mueller. For this end, he has the votes in this Senate, starting from January when the new members of the Upper House are sworn in—until now, he did not have the support of at least 2 Republican Senators who will not return to the new Congress (Jeff Flake of Arizona and Bob Corker of Tennessee). If that is the case, there will be an energetic response from the House of Representatives, which now in Democratic hands can fully use its powers of investigation and control over the Executive.
Democrats won Miami districts and were Elected in Republican Stronghold States
Florida deserves further consideration to point out that Democrats won Miami without trouble, with the districts of Donna Shalala and the Latina leader and Ecuadorian immigrant, Debbie Mucarsel. This means that the traditional narrative of Senator Marco Rubio and his allies, focused on the Cuba-Venezuela topic as a means to engage voters, wasn’t enough to captivate more than 50% of the votes in those communities. Meanwhile, in those districts and all over the country Democrats reached unprecedented participation for a midterm election, in which their candidates received on average 76% of the national support. Certainly, the Hispanic voter prioritizes another agenda: one of opportunities and inclusion within diversity, which is represented as a collective in the American society.
The Democrats proved their strength in states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which in 2016 gave Trump an advantage in the Electoral College, despite not reaching the majority of the national popular vote. Last Tuesday, Democrats powerfully won all those governorships and Senate seats, as well as most of the districts for the House of Representatives.
Considering all of this, the path to Trump’s reelection narrows significantly. Even more if we consider not only the close election for the Texas Senate, but also in Kansas, another Republican stronghold, where the Democratic candidate won the governor race.
The Diverse Representation Mosaic of 2018
To close last Tuesday’s analysis, it’s worth mentioning the diversity that accompanied the Democrat triumph in both the House and high positions to represent people. In general, there was an incredible women leadership empowerment; seven new representatives are from the Latino community (mostly women, too), totaling to a powerful conference of 39 legislators and a Latina elected for governor in New Mexico.
In total 51 Latinos were elected to not only federal or of state roles, but also local or judicial positions; the very significant position of Attorney General of California is now in hands of the important leader and Hispanic lawyer Xavier Becerra. Moreover, the first two Muslim women were elected into Congress, as well as the first two of Native American heritage. Altogether, a representation mosaic that reflects the American society: a diverse, plural, inclusive country, where immigrants are welcome because they are an essential part of the society of opportunities and social mobility that the US has always offered.
It was an interesting election. We will know if the members of both houses, regardless of the party’s agenda or the distortion that the White House introduces due to Trump’s whims, will be able to work more productively or if the political tension that makes Washington, for now, somewhat dysfunctional political center will continue .
Para español lea El Nacional: Elecciones de mitad de período en EEUU: una primera lectura
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