Two weeks ago, former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden formalized his campaign to run for the Democratic primaries with an extraordinary video that went viral on social media.
During the first 24 hours after the announcement, Biden’s campaign raised a record of almost $7 million. And in just ten days, the polls reflected the political impact of his decision. In the months before making his announcement, Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont led the polls neck-and-neck, both ranging between 25 and 30 percent. Meanwhile, senators Harris and Warren, as well as former congressman Beto O’Rourke, were rising strongly from a distance ranging between 5 and 10 percent; usually, with the charismatic senator Harris from California surpassing them in an equally competitive way.
This week many polls reflected an important settling. In most of them, Joe Biden is the solid frontrunner. After fifteen days, he launched up to 45 percent, according to some polls. The Real Clear Politics poll average indicates Biden has 41.4 percent of the votes, more than duplicating his lead over Sanders. Simultaneously, Sanders’s percentage decreased to 14.6, due to the advancement of senator Elizabeth Warren who, intersecting his electoral audience, increased to 8. The same poll continues with senator Harris with 7 percent, mayor Pete Buttigieg with 6.6, Beto O’Rourke with 4.4, senator Cory Booker with 2.6, and the rest of the long list of candidates at the margin of error of the surveys with less than 1.5 percent.
In a few words, it is fair to say the Biden effect has settled many things and that, in addition to this giant’s presence in U.S. politics, Beto O’Rourke’s phenomenon has been eclipsed by Mayor Pete’s emergence with a new and fresh leadership. Buttigieg has amazed people both for his rise in the polls and for his solid figures of campaign fundraising. This poll average could also indicate that Warren and Pete, more than Beto, have taken part of Sanders’s support; while Biden gained substantial support from the Democrats who remained undecided, perhaps waiting for his announcement. However, many supporters consigned to Sanders seem to have migrated to Biden, perhaps identifying him with the progressive electorate’s always-favorite Barack Obama.
Another important detail found in opinion studies (still too premature, but indicative) reveals Biden is the candidate that best polarizes against Trump, beating him in national averages by ten points. Moreover, the studies show that Biden can also win over Florida, in addition to standing strong in the Democratic bastions of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, because of his position as an advocate for both the rights of the working class and the quality of life of the middle class.
Trump won the presidency without the popular vote and with a difficult combination in the complex mathematics of the Electoral College, which added Florida to the mentioned Democratic strongholds of the so-called North American industrial belt. If he loses Florida and either Pennsylvania or Michigan, the Democrats would regain control of the White House. Moreover, Democrats have at least three different ways to sum the magical number of 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency—two of which do not include winning Florida. Conversely, Trump cannot be reelected without winning Florida.
The 2016 polls (faced with a hypothetical Joe Biden candidacy that did not formalize due to the unfortunate and painful passing of Biden’s son Beau, opening a possibility for Hillary Clinton) favored Biden over Trump in the Sunshine State with an average of more than 10 percentage points. Right now, according to the prestigious Florida pollster Bendixen & Amandi, only 40 percent of Florida’s residents believes Trump is worthy of reelection, in contrast with 53 percent that thinks he should not be reelected (and 7 percent undecided). Additionally, 23 percent of the registered Republicans believes that Trump should not be reelected president. The same study has Biden leading the Democrat electorate in Florida’s primary, and most favorable amongst independent voters. Without a doubt, a privileged position to polarize and defeat Trump in this key state for the 2020 presidency.
From a communication point of view, Biden set the tone with his campaign announcement video. He is not competing against other Democrats, but against Trump. His narrative takes the events in Charlottesville, Virginia, as the reason for his decision—the day when the white supremacist and neo-Nazi groups assaulted citizens, which resulted in several victims, including a young woman who lost her life. Faced with this horrible rendition of the racism that hit the United States for decades, Trump normalized the protest of these supremacist groups by equating them to those who peacefully manifested against their presence in the city, to the point of saying there were “very fine people on both sides.” From that moment, Biden centers his discourse in the defense of civil rights, constitutionality, and the value of equal opportunity under the law.
The core values of this nation… our standing in the world… our very democracy…everything that has made America — America –is at stake. That’s why today I’m announcing my candidacy for President of the United States. #Joe2020 https://t.co/jzaQbyTEz3
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) April 25, 2019
His career in these struggles, coupled with statesmanship in foreign policy matters, allow him to outline a center-progressive campaign, with a deeply institutional message; economically rational and practical, as well as socially and politically inclusive. As if that were not enough, in all his appearances, Biden appeals to the need to build consensus and a common ground to rescue governability in Washington, which is becoming more polarized. He reminds this is possible through repeated references to his proven capacity for bipartisan dialogue during a long career as a legislator, where from the Senate he stood out for bipartisan initiatives on critical issues. While it is true that there may be stains or controversies after serving in the Senate for 36 years, Biden’s balance in Congress is very positive. Above all, he has the aura of his eight years as Vice President of the immensely popular Barack Obama.
Obama has not spoken on behalf of Biden, at the candidate’s request, asking for neutrality to strengthen the party’s unity throughout the primary cycle. Obama, for his part, has said in a couple of speeches that the extreme is not the real Democratic Party’s alternative. Rather, he prefers a candidate capable of spreading a message and leading a campaign from the center-left or center-progressive. Exactly the point of the spectrum Biden represents.
Para español lea Al Navío: El efecto Biden sacude la carrera electoral en Estados Unidos