Trump launched his reelection campaign this week. He chose the city of Orlando, Florida, to make the announcement. This event created different expectations in various audiences; let’s analyze the implications and priorities as candidate and president he laid out during his speech in this event.
Before diving into the analysis, it is important to state two facts as starting points. First, all polarizing polls have Trump losing to the top four candidates with most support among the aspiring ones for the Democratic nomination. For example, Joe Biden (with the best results) would have a two-digit advantage over Trump in both the popular vote and key states in the Electoral College map, particularly Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. In 2016, Trump had a small-margin victory in these states, as well as in Florida. However, according to the prestigious University of Quinnipiac poll, Joe Biden would win Florida by 9 percentage points against Trump.
Second, the only way Trump can keep the presidency is if he combines a triumph in Florida with a group of states that sum up the needed 270 electoral votes. Meanwhile, the Democrats can take back the White House without winning in Florida. As a consequence, a Democratic triumph in said state would put an end to Trump’s presidential adventure.
Having just learned about Florida’s key role, there is no doubt why Trump chose that state to kick off his reelection campaign. It’s strategic and essential for him. It is the same reason why the Democratic Party is holding its first two presidential nomination primary debates there next week. So, naturally, when Trump announced Orlando as his pick, there were some expectations.
Many analysts covering Latino or Hispanic media, or from Latin America, thought that matters such as Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua would be among the discourse’s privileged lines. Just a couple of days before, Trump had improvised saying he was “evaluating” the constant Democratic congress members’ proposal to extend a migratory protective status to Venezuelans who are taking refuge with their families and close friends, mainly in Miami. However, this assessment was short-lived. This week vice president Pence declared, hours before the event in Orlando, that the Trump administration’s approach was to support the return of democracy to Venezuela, and not the granting of migratory protection to facilitate the stay or migration of Venezuelans to the United States. We also know that weeks ago the administration’s officials in charge of the Venezuelan case have gradually turned to postures that leave behind the chapter of pressure escalation, including the extremist rhetoric of use of force or military intervention.
While the topic of Venezuela cools down as a rhetoric element for Florida, Trump got on the Orlando Amway Center stage and did not address any of these matters. He did not even try a discourse or proposal—looking to make amends or show a humanitarian front—that would bring him closer to the populous Puerto Rican population that lives in that area and in the central corridor of Florida, since he did not talk about Puerto Rico, its reconstruction, or the future of the Island of Enchantment.
In a few words, none of the issues and priorities of the diverse Latino community emerge in Trump’s electoral rhetoric. Instead, his speech focused on referring to the 2016 campaign issues, promising “massive deportations,” and attributing current economic well-being and other successes to his nationalist policies and tariff battles or trade wars with Mexico and China. In addition to that, hours of victimization for what he defines as a “witch hunt” against his to disqualify the forceful findings of Prosecutor Bob Mueller; and a scathing attack on the free press.
With respect to the economy, the US Federal Reserve (FED) responded the next day (without any intention of being political) to Trump’s pretensions. It announced it would maintain a policy of low interest rates in the face of an economic slowdown, which had experienced a six consecutive year boost during Obama’s administration and continuing with Trump’s first two; and accelerated lightly, punctually, and circumstantially after the tax rebate of 2017. Interestingly, the most qualified experts say the rebate already had all the impact that could be expected in the markets, faced with the vulnerability or uncertainty caused by the “trade war with China” or growth of the fiscal deficit. It serves to remember that Obama left the fiscal deficit under control at 2.8% of GDP and it is now growing to stand at 4.5% of GDP, after a trillionaire wealth increase in the country’s most affluent corporations and people through the federal tax cut or reduction.
Trump defined his priorities and strategy in Orlando: a dangerous nationalism, based on a difficult to sustain excluding economic model, in a society that gives its back to immigrants (who have played a fundamental roll in the success and US experience throughout the years), adding to this xenophobic rhetoric by introducing very delicate racial and social tensions for the future of this great country. The Orlando Sentinel Editorial Board summarized the problem of Trump’s candidacy in an editorial: “We’re here to announce our endorsement for president in 2020, or, at least, who we’re not endorsing: Donald Trump.”
Para español lea Al Navío “Trump coloca la xenofobia como eje central de su discurso electoral”