Last week Democrats celebrated their second presidential primary debates in Detroit, Michigan. This city is as symbolic as Miami, where the first round of debates took place and located in a pendular electoral state. Without Florida, Trump cannot win the presidential reelection.
The University of Quinnipiac polls show two tendencies: (1) less than 41% of citizens in Florida believe Trump should not be reelected; and (2) all the Democratic candidates would beat him in Florida (among them, Biden would win by the most difference—9%.)
At the same time, Latino Decisions surveys indicate that, except in the Cuban-American community (which is equally divided into Democrats and Republicans, with the younger voters in favor of the former), the Hispanic vote is openly against Trump, particularly the Puerto Ricans in the central corridor of that state.
Moreover, a study directed by Florida International University professor Eduardo Gamarra on the electoral behavior of the Venezuelan diaspora reveals that, although the diaspora recognizes and thanks Trump’s efforts to look for a solution for Venezuela, 60% of those surveyed incline towards Democrats. Among other priorities, they support those who promote the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Venezuela. Both the Democratic Party and Democratic legislators are leading this initiative, against the Republican opposition and the White House refusal.
It was precisely to strengthen this trend that the first Democratic debates called for the activism of all its candidates in Florida.
There are some differences in the case of Michigan, though the symbolism is comparable. The US Midwest (which extends from Ohio to Wisconsin, through Pennsylvania and Michigan) is a mosaic where agricultural areas intermingle with cities and suburbs of traditional industrial sectors. These include the automobile industry—in apparent recovery thanks to President Obama’s policies—as well as other industries that face both competition from China and the effects of robotization or automation, displacing skilled labor that has supported millions of families in the sub-region for decades. Naturally, in this industrial corridor, the unions—which lean Democrat—are very important.
Democrats had traditionally dominated presidential elections in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, except for the two occasions when they favored the Republican standard-bearers: Reagan and Trump. Ohio is a harder bone to crack; like Florida, it has a pendular behavior of Republican tendency in critical moments. According to polls on the Electoral College board, Trump cannot win without Florida and the bulk of the Midwest, like in 2016, unless he can compensate with other electoral conquests in states that are uphill for him.
On the other hand, Democrats can win without Florida; however, they would have to take back at least two out of three states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—, while maintaining the other wins Hillary Clinton achieved in 2016. Furthermore, if Democrats lose Florida or another state won in 2016, they can still defeat Trump if they add Ohio. That is why the debate in the emblematic Detroit was so important.
The Glengariff Group poll wards that Trump is not fairing well in the Midwest and that less than 36% of voters in Michigan would support his reelection. The 2018 midterm elections displayed a strong Democratic come back, even in states like Wisconsin, where they took back the governor position.
In Ohio, the most difficult Midwest state for the Democrats, Trump would lose against Joe Biden by 9% (as in Florida). This revealing result is a symptom of the reality that the industrial working class sectors—which supported Trump or did not vote for Hillary Clinton (either because they abstained or because they preferred the minority options of Gary Johnson or Jill Stein)—are not seeing Trump’s offer materialize in practical terms. Although there is economic growth, salary is not improving; and job vacancies in traditional industries are not increasing like Trump promised they would with his “tariff or trade wars” with China or Mexico.
During a recent trip to Milwaukee, I learned that the index of embargoes to dairy farms (sector in which that state is a national leader) reached a historical record; even suicides among the families of farmers have increased. Because of Trump’s tariff wars, countries affected are imposing tariffs on Wisconsin cheeses. Trump does not quite understand that his populist rhetoric crashes into reality: he is blind to the economic unfeasibility of his vote-seeking proposals.
In Detroit, we saw two days filled with proposals and arguments among Democrats on how to address the matters that (economic and politically) interest the vital sector of the US geography. We also witnessed the pre-candidates’ strategies to position themselves better in front of Joe Biden, who is still leading the polls by far.
Two things are clear: discontent towards Trump is growing, and his speech is being exposed. The Democratic challenge is to reconcile positions from both the debate and primaries, as well as to seek votes with enthusiasm and unity to put an end this to this dysfunctional and atypical presidency, which is harmful to democracy and the US working class.
Para español lea El Nacional “El populismo de Trump hace aguas en el decisivo Midwest”