The impeachment inquiry—a preliminary investigation to establish whether or not to begin the process of a political trial against Trump—entered a critical route. The evidence that has come to light, as well as the first public audiences of the House Intelligence Committee, headed by the Democrat congressman Adam Shiff, certainly proves very compromising to Trump in various fronts. They reveal levels of corruption and detachment from the constitutional framework, not seen since the time of Richard Nixon. One thing should be clear: in the case of Ukraine, National Security matters were compromised.
Here is how this impeachment inquiry process is developing: Shiff advanced the preliminary investigation in the Intelligence Committee. The first stage was brief—behind closed doors—because it implicated National Security matters that, before becoming public, had to be corroborated. Now, Shiff’s staff is writing a report for public release and transmittal to the Judiciary Committee. There, the committee could raise charges against President Trump, based on the articles of impeachment. The members of the House then vote to approve these charges, and the political trial passes on to the Senate.
The House vote requires a simple majority, which the Democrats can meet by themselves. However, the Senate vote to declare the president guilty and remove him from office needs two-thirds of the members. There lies the most challenging matter. Twenty Republican senators—out of the 53 that integrate the majority in the Upper House—need to join the 47 Democratic senators to reach the two-thirds of the votes demanded by the Constitution. For this reason, it is fundamental to add Republican support in the House of Representatives and win over public opinion. After all, beyond the juridical and the compelling evidence that is in sight, it is a political decision with legal implications.
In the weeks since the impeachment process began, Trump’s popular support has remained 41%—one of the lowest ever—according to the Morning Consult. Additionally, the public support to remove Trump from power by impeachment—instead of the 2020 elections—has yet to consolidate over 47% on average. However, the open and firm rejection for Trump to continue in office averages 53%.
This is the political key: Republican senators who will face reelection in 2020 may not vote in favor of the impeachment out of convenience, despite the severity of the matter. Depending on the national and corresponding state’s sentiment, these senators fear to lose the Republican base that still supports Trump and, therefore, losing in a Republican primary against an opponent backed by the president.
Additionally, Democratic legislators elected in districts with Republican tendencies, or with swing voters, would also be exposed to electoral risks if they supported an impeachment that did not prosper. However, there is a revealing detail concerning public opinion. The most recent ABC News poll asks whether the person considers that Trump did something wrong by asking the president of Ukraine to interfere in domestic matters against Joe Biden—the best candidate to defeat Trump—, in exchange for sending the military aid approved by the US Congress. According to the poll, 70% of Americans believe that Trump did something wrong, while only 51% agree with the impeachment.
In summary, US citizens recognize the gravity of the investigated events but prefer to defeat Trump in the elections rather than removing him from office through an impeachment proceeding. Joe Biden clearly expressed in previous days that, “the House of Representatives has no option but to abide by the Constitution; if the process ends up in the Senate one way or another, both Republican and independent citizens, after seeing the results of this investigation, will say: this is wrong, we have to do something,” and that something is to vote against Trump.
It is clear then that even if the impeachment does not happen, this matter adds combustible to the wave of voters that may rise against Trump. The results of the most recent regional elections in November is very revealing. Despite Republicans campaigning with all the resources in two solid red states—Kentucky and Louisiana—, Democratic candidates won the governor races in both states.
In Virginia, a state that, little by little, has shifted from Republican to a swing state, has finally transformed into a Democratic bastion. Virginian Democrats, already representing the state federally with two US senators, won the governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general races in 2017. Now, despite the gerrymandering that prevented it, both state legislative chambers obtained a Democratic majority on November 5, for the first time in over two decades. The starting line for this change has been, without a doubt, the terrible value that the electorate has, beyond the Democratic base, of Donald Trump and his administration.
Democrats’ narratives concerning critical economic and social matters for US citizens is another key element that is moving majorities in Virginia, in addition to the impact of the impeachment. Just like in Virginia—a state that allows to predict elections and construct effective campaign models in other states of the country due to its demographic—, Democrats will also center in their proposals in states such as Florida and Ohio, which could uproot Trump and what he stands for. Something many Republicans wish for, by the way.
The 2017 elections in Virginia drew the plan to build a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections. That same energy is present in the recent state legislative elections, in addition to that of Kentucky and Louisiana, which proves that there is also a consolidated anti-Trump electorate in very Republican audiences.
Trump is afraid. He attacks Biden early on, using desperate and inacceptable methods of unconstitutional and criminal nature because the polls predict that the former Vice President to Obama would defeat Trump during his reelection. Finally, he could not win the governor races in states as Republican and Kentucky and Louisiana, or prevent a terrible electoral defeat in Virginia, which allows campaigns to create models to succeed in crucial states in the Electoral College map.
Fear is a bad counselor. But anyone in Trump’s place would have reason to fear. The critical path of the impeachment inquiry could not lead to removing the president from office. Still, it is a path that nobody in office would like to go through, given that in every corner there is an edge that cuts support and sympathies. Democrats know that well, and they are waiting for him at the end of the route to confront him with his many apparent mistakes.
Para español lea “El impeachment o las elecciones de Virginia ¿Qué es más peligroso para Trump?”