As we continue to be sheltered at home, terrified by the projection of more than 100,000 possible deaths in the United States and managing the stress of the pandemic’s economic impacts, we are also thinking of the political consequences of the COVID-19 amid this crisis. This year, Americans are facing a presidential election that was already considered historical by most of us, in which democracy, justice, and American core values are at risk on the ballot. Adding to the polarizing figure of Trump, who is himself an atypical political figure, we are walking into the critical stretch of the election in the uncharted waters of a pandemic. We might, for the first time, see both major political parties host virtual national conventions. The DNC has already moved the date of the Democratic Party Convention from July 17 to August 17, 2020. Several state primaries are already postponed to the end of May or early June without certainty if whether the pandemic will continue to be an obstacle to proceed and close those chapters on the respective new dates.Furthermore, we are innovating with videoconferences to work politics from home. Candidates sheltered at home are struggling for earned media since all the oxygen in the newsrooms is filled with the daily White House briefings, governors briefings, and experts offering medical guidance or analyzing how far this can go. Fundraising is also a huge problem; campaign finances will have to adjust budgets, and this will probably be a campaign dominated by digital outreach and engagement. Many are wondering how to conduct the election itself (early voting and measures to facilitate people’s right to vote) in a scenario in which the pandemic extends to October and November. Certainly, the outbreak projections could worsen and hit states that do not understand today what N.Y. Governor Cuomo means when he says to his colleagues: “N.Y. today is your state tomorrow,” urging those governors reluctant to follow strict guidelines to prevent the spread of the virus and not preparing for a spike at home anytime soon. One interesting factor surfaced in this crisis, partly given the White House’s erratic management of the crisis, but also due to the complexities of the U.S.’ legal and federal system, is how difficult it is to create a coherent national emergency response to confront a health crisis, from uniforming social distancing guidelines or quarantine-equivalent measures to handling the supply and distribution of medical equipment or the logistics of the response to the crisis. Americans’ natural and deep-rooted individualism and distrust of government intervention creates a sharp contrast to the best practices to deal with a crisis like this, as we have seen in other countries such as South Korea. Finally, we have to come to the political odds in this election. It’s early and impossible to make sound polling and projection in this volatile environment. The mood of citizens, perceptions, and preferences can change in the blink of an eye—including 180 degrees changes. But four points are worth making at this early stage:1) This will be a Trump v. Biden election (the only person that has not come to realize it yet is, inexplicably, Bernie Sanders himself). In the first batch of presidential approval polls (Gallup’s tracking been a very consistent one on this subject), Trump’s approval rating increased to his best number, reaching 47-48% on average. Given his erratic mismanagement, this approval is surprisingly a result of how he has handled the emergency. But this is not new. Public opinion trends to galvanize support for the President at the begging of—sometimes even during—a national crisis until we enter the phase of evaluating performance and consequences.
2) A second point to note: none of the polling measuring the preferences in a Biden v. Trump match favors the President. Biden is winning against Trump with comfortable margins in every national poll as summarized by Real Clear Politics: |
