Last Monday, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema was proclaimed the next US Senator for the state of Arizona. This news came almost a week after Election Day (November 6th) when the initial vote count suggested the seat would go to the Republicans. However, the count and recount of votes in a single county, Maricopa, made the difference.
The Democrat team did its job defending the vote; including the meticulous task of revising thousands of electoral ballots submitted by Hispanic citizens, whose right to vote the government under Republican control intended to impede. In addition, the Arizona resident citizens and military personnel mailed-in ballots were tallied in the days following the election. Another issue that required special attention was the electoral participation flow that demanded emergency voting centers to open due to the influx of new voters that would have overflowed the usual electoral infrastructure. Republican candidate McSally did not hesitate to admit Sinema’s victory. Similarly, Republican Senator Jeff Flake—who didn’t run for reelection because of his open differences with Trump—recognized the victory of the Democrat who will replace him in the Upper House, congratulating Sinema without reservation. On top of Sinema’s Senate election, 4 Latinos increased Democrat representation in the Arizona State Legislature, overcoming the “Gerrymandering” obstacle. The control of the State Legislature wasn’t reached by one district, with minimal vote difference.
However, Trump sent numerous tweets from the White House calling for fraud. He anticipated the same risk of fraud in Florida, where the law mandates a vote recount for both the Senate and Governor elections, given a difference of less than 0.5% between the two most popular candidates. Only partisan extremists and some in Florida—once more, the epicenter of a controversial vote recount (like when Al Gore lost the Presidency against George Bush)—backed this fraud cry.
Florida’s Midterm Election is subject to a key county: Broward. It’s a widely diverse enclave, where African-Americans and Latinos with Democratic tendencies vote. Regrettably, it’s also where there tends to exist conflicts related to votes in provisional ballots that must be certified and accounted for, as well as other very specific cases such as mailed-in ballots. The latter applies throughout the state and is particularly important with respect to the votes of those in military service currently stationed outside of Florida, their state of legal residency. The right thing to do in Florida is to wait until the lawful procedure is completed. However, governor Scott—who is still serving as governor and running for the Senate seat against Democrat Bill Nelson— echoes Trump’s fraud cries, both without proof. The electoral authorities controlled by Scott’s government don’t see any evidence of fraud, but the legal obligation to ensure all votes are, just like in Arizona, properly counted.
Still, let’s not speculate on what might happen in Florida and instead return to Arizona. Sinema’s triumph is historic because it’s the first time in 23 years that a Democrat is elected US Senator for the state that has been represented for almost a quarter century by two Republican Senators.
Trump lost twice in this Midterm Election in Arizona—a key state for his Presidential election. First, he lost in attempt to get his unconditional ally, former Sheriff Joe Arpaio, to the midterm ticket. Arpaio, a symbol of xenophobia and racism, was convicted for contempt of the court that judged him on the basis of violation of civil rights. In August 2017, Trump pardoned Arpaio, so he could run for Senator. Nonetheless, Arpaio lost in the Republican primaries against McSally, which brings us to Trump’s second loss: attempting to impose his xenophobic rhetoric onto McSally, all the way from Washington. The electoral expert David Axelrod, given what happened in Arizona, tweeted: “The president’s calculated histrionics about the [migrant] caravan, about which we have heard very little since Election Day, may have sunk the GOP in Arizona.”
Maricopa is a very important county in Arizona, in part because it encompasses the capital of the state, Phoenix. This city from original diversity is now growing due to immigration and growing activity around Arizona State University. The positive effects of NAFTA (now USMCA) also contributed to Phoenix’s advance. For instance, it attracted people from around the country and created opportunities for multiple logistic services and storage or distribution companies that have flourished in the area.
Phoenix is the fifth most populated city in the United States today. In its vicinity, the cities of Scottsdale and Mesa add prosperity and diversity. This influence expands to the suburbs of Tucson—a city located in the neighboring county of Pima with a notable Hispanic population. Another important fact is that Arizona’s Hispanic or Latino collective (similar to that of Texas, Colorado, New Mexico and California) is made up of more than immigrants. Hispanics and Latinos make up 30% of the population in Maricopa (Pheonix) and 45% in Pima (Tucson). In both cases, the percentage of the Mexican-American population is 25 and 35 percent, respectively. These numbers include the American citizens who have resided in the state (once Mexico) for multiple generations, not by crossing the border, but rather because this expanding line crossed them.
In a few words, the racial tensions on which Trump’s (and formerly locally Arpaio’s) rhetoric aims to capitalize exist in a significant part of the population and sectors of the state geography. Nonetheless, change is happening in cities like Phoenix, which sets the tone for the future of Arizona. Just like Lorenzo Sierra—newly elected State Congressman, after serving as Avondale City Council (located in Maricopa)— said in reference to this year’s election: “When Latinos get out and vote, change triumphs in Arizona.”
Democrat Sinema’s triumph, though narrow, is significant because it attests xenophobia is becoming less of a problem by virtue of generational change and the progress education and diversity bring about. Even though in the immediate future it constitutes a horrible tension installed there, enabling leaders like Trump. But messaging on the Democrats side was also essential in Arizona. Candidates that won, like Sinema, were disciplined and focused. The biggest issue for Arizonians, like healthcare, were on the top list of their talking points. Expanding healthcare coverage resonates not only in the populated more progressive enclaves; it also speaks volumes to those voters in rural areas of the State, where alternatives are almost non-existent. Democrats kept their message on target, not falling for the bait to radicalize the narrative that Trump injected at the end of the race with the caravan, or the absurd and unconstitutional idea of rescinding birthright citizenship. All of that was pushed back from the national democratic voices, and many other places, but Arizona candidates stayed focused primarily on healthcare, and with well thought local talking points on jobs, education and better wages. When ir came to immigration the democratic candidates in Arizona centered in the DREAMERS, possibly the one issue on the subject for which you find wide consensus among Arizona voters of all political leanings and walks of live.
There’s another important impact worth analyzing in this result. Back in August, the legendary and heroic John McCain passed away, provisionally leaving his Senate seat to Arizona’s Republican governor, following the state’s constitution. That seat must be passed on in a special election in November 2020, coinciding with the Presidential Election. If the current tendency persists, it’s possible that another Democrat will be elected for that seat in the Senate. For this position, rumors favorite Rubén Gallego, who is young, charismatic, and a decorated veteran for his service in the Iraq War. He’s also an emerging Latino leader of Colombian and Mexican heritage.
If on top of Arizona’s triumph we add the fact that Democrats lost the Texas’s Senate seat by a minimal difference, but conquered that of Nevada (for reasons similar to the ones analyzed in this article), we could be in front of a very different electoral map. It’s starting to look like traditional Republican red states are turning purple, tinted with blue from the increasing Democrat population attributed to an urban and suburban economic expansion. It’s a young and university population, marked by both diversity (specially by Hispanics or Latino voters) and the fertility of the economic-commercial exchange with Mexico.
No wonder, the presidential pre-candidate Julián Castro—a national leader of the conference of Hispanic Democratic leaders, ex-mayor of San Antonio, Texas, and Obama’s former Minister of Urban Housing— tweeted the same day of Sinema’s proclaimed triumph: “Arizona-Texas-Florida, the future.” Undoubtedly, Castro already counts Nevada as a conquered space for the Democrats. There, they just won, with an impressive Hispanic participation and a new trend, the Senate seat, as well as the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of the State. Without a doubt, the political future of the United States is conjugated in Spanish and has blue flickers.
Lea en español Al Navío: Por qué el triunfo demócrata en Arizona anuncia una nueva tendencia política en EEUU
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