And in this corner, the phenomenon Beto O’Rourke … or is it Pete

If a couple of days ago the roster of possible candidates for the U.S. Democratic Party’s primaries was numerous, notable for its high quality and diversity, now it is even more so due to more recent incorporations. Two names that represent the younger generations are added to the list: Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and Beto O’Rourke, former U.S. congressman of Texas.

This is the fourth article we dedicate to getting to know the contenders for the internal Democratic election and understanding where their chances for the nomination stand. Last week, we signaled that we were starting to hear big footsteps approaching, which could only mean Joe Biden is thinking about running, though he has not confirmed it with all of his gravitas yet. Of course, he would be joining a very competed race, given the representation of the female leadership of senators Harris (California), Warren (Massachusetts), Gillibrand (New York), and Klobuchar (Minnesota); as well as the progressive senators Booker (New Jersey) and Sanders (Vermont); and the group of governors Hickenlooper (Colorado) and Inslee (Washington).

Pete Buttigieg

Now, a pair of equally outstanding figures joins the brilliant roster. The first, Pete Buttigieg, is the son of an immigrant man from Malta who, like Pete’s mother Anne Montgomery, is a prominent professor at the prestigious University of Notre Dame. Pete Buttigieg is 37 years old, but that does not imply little experience. In fact, during a CNN interview, he told Jake Tapper that has worked more years in public administration than Trump and has served for more years in the military than every president since George H.W. Bush. It is true; the young mayor, in addition to graduating magna cum laude from both Harvard and Oxford, and having worked as a consultant of the important firm McKensie, is a lieutenant of the Naval, today in reserve. Moreover, he served in the combat zone in Afghanistan in 2014, for which he took a seven-month leave while serving as mayor of his native South Bend, a position for which he was elected in 2011 and again in 2015. Last year, he announced that he would not be seeking a third term. In 2017, he aspired to the Democratic Party Presidency, but withdrew his candidacy in the face of a polarization between the current president, Tom Perez, and the then congressman (now Minnesota Attorney General) Keith Ellison.

Buttigieg is the first openly gay elected official by popular vote in the state of Indiana. He was recognized for his work in 2013, together with Michael Bloomberg, as the best mayor of the United States. In his interventions and interviews, Buttigieg demonstrates a masterful handling of the most relevant concepts of public policies with great analytical and argumentative capacity. Not for nothing, the Washington Post called him the most interesting mayor that has been heard of in years, and a prestigious New York Times columnist titled a column asking if we would be in the presence of the first gay president of the US. But the staging of Beto O’Rourke challenges the attention that the jovial and intellectual presence of Pete Buttigieg could attract.

Beto O’Rourke

Robert Francis O’Rourke, 47, is the son of an Irish immigrant, but everyone in his native El Paso thinks he is Hispanic. He speaks perfect Spanish and is known by the popular nickname ‘Beto’—diminutive equivalent to the English Bob—, which was given to him by his schoolmates in the mostly-Latino border city of El Paso, Texas. There, he became close to the Hispanic community, because he understood the contribution and journey of the immigrant family. He has the advantage of an overflowing sympathy, as well as his charismatic and high figure. He was a drummer for a rock band, a successful young businessman, and an expert in managing political communication through social networks. In 2012, he was elected congressman for El Paso, and in 2018 he faced Ted Cruz for the Senate of Texas, losing it by a minimum margin in an election that captivated the country due to its political significance. He raised his national profile in both his roles of congressman and candidate for the Senate. O’Rourke is a political actor focused on his economic message, but with a progressive accent due to his commitment to new sources of renewable energy and the fight for the preservation of the environment and against climate change. In social matters, he is a fierce defender of immigrant rights, civil rights, the study of criminal and psychological background for the bearing and possession of weapons, and social inclusion through advanced universal health reform, as well as the removal of financial barriers for access to higher education.

Texas is a Republican stronghold, but the four big cities of the state—Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and Austin—already have Democratic mayors. The Republicans’ power is the result of both the weight of the vote in rural areas of the state and the low participation of minorities that could make a difference, but do not because of Latino and African-American voter suppression. In his campaign, O’Rourke ignited the power of university youth and set up a legion of volunteers who went out to register and mobilize usually excluded voters. With a little more time, that empowerment would have shown Ted Cruz the face of defeat; in the end, Beto lost the close election by less than 3%. However, the mobilization served as an aircraft carrier to extend the Texan representation to the House of Representatives of the state. Beto O’Rourke’s energy became a national trend. The ambition of achieving a senator seat for Texas attracted activists and small “online” donors from all over the country; and the organization, as well as Beto’s digital campaigns, made history. He built a powerful database that allowed him to raise more than 80 million dollars without accepting money from the so-called PAC of corporate interests.

This time around, O’Rourke announced his presidential candidacy through social networks. Within 24 hours, his emails and text messages reached millions of Americans. In a single day his campaign raised the record amount of 6 million dollars. People were already impressed to hear that a couple of weeks ago Sanders raised a million dollars in the same period, but Beto’s start was simply remarkable.

Biden is still the frontrunner

According to the polls, former Vice President Joe Biden is the leader of the group, even without formalizing his candidacy. But the strength displayed by Beto’s serve is the most significant element that Biden’s analysts and advisors are watching. Candidates must report their contributions and donors every three months. Beto, within a few days of campaign in March, could be ahead in fundraising along with Sanders. Biden’s teams will be studying and weighing these numbers. When Biden formalizes his aspiration next quarter, he will have to show an equivalent strength in total contributions and number of donors. Both of these parameters, together with the polls, allow analysts measure the viability and strength of each candidate’s options. On the other hand, many observers think Beto’s entry into the race may dilute the support of young and small donors who have traditionally favored Sanders, making more room for Biden and Senator Kamala Harris in certain states. Analysts also speculate if—in the face of the dysfunction, scandal and polarization either Trump created or surrounds him—the country will prefer the man with the gray hair, State experience, and ability to create bipartisan consensus from his long career in the Senate; or the young leader who offers the possibility of unite the base with his freshness and common sense, as well as a break in the molds that have blocked the political game in Washington. And of course, there are some who suggest looking for a combination of the two. But it is still too early to draw any conclusions. Soon enough either surveys or data will confirm new hypotheses for the consultants.

On their part, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) has set the parameters that applicants must meet to enter the first two debates of the Democratic primary in June and July this year—the first two of a starting a series of debates that will extend all the way to the Party’s Convention, which will take place in Milwaukee in July 2020. As soon as the debates start, the aspirants will travel state by state, until January 2019. Then, the Iowa electoral convention will take place, a prelude to the New Hampshire primary, and the start of the course of six months of conventions and primaries for every state in the country. Finally, leading up to the Convention where the delegates will choose the standard-bearer. Little by little, we will be seeing electoral polls by; the Iowa preliminaries follow this distribution: Biden (28%), Sanders (20%) and Harris (12.5%), Warren (10%), with Beto (5%) in fifth place.

The Democratic primary tour to snatch the White House from a Trump besieged by the scandal and low popularity numbers—which the pollster Gallup placed his administration at 38% approval and 57 disapproval—despite the relative economic scope, will be exciting. So far, the Democrats have scored a victory by offering voters a brilliant set of possible standard-bearers, which expresses the vast talent reserved in the ranks of the organization. That, in contrast to the obtuseness of the often-unpresentable Donald Trump, is no small thing.

Para español lea Al Navío: El fenómeno Beto O’Rourke pone a temblar a los otros candidatos del Partido Demócrata en EEUU

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