The pandemic definitely found a new epicenter in the United States, but it seems even more perplexing to see its current impact in The Americas as a whole.
In addition to the U.S., in Brazil the impact of COVID-19 is imposing a horrific toll on human life and the health of people (with 2 million confirmed cases, the second highest in the world after the U.S.), very much like in several other countries in our hemisphere.
In Mexico, the second largest country in population of the region, after Brazil, the pandemic keeps finding its way without contention and effective response. Ecuador, which was an early critical situation (with 11,536 new cases in a given day on April) has made progress but is far from turning the page in this battle. Bolivia has decided to postpone a historical presidential election amidst the surge of coronavirus. Chile and Peru are also battling major outbreaks; and in countries like Venezuela, already going through a crisis of humanitarian magnitude with a collapsed healthcare system, the impact of COVID-19 turns the scenarios into a socioeconomic tsunami.
COVID-19 is impacting The Americas with no clear indication of success in managing or controlling the sanitarian and public health crisis. Even Costa Rica, which was standing out as an exception (and an exceptional case study of success) has seen a spike in new cases since late June, jumping from 5 new cases per day at the beginning of June, to 827 cases per day just this week. In sum, as of today, perhaps the only exception to the magnitude of the crisis in the region remains Uruguay.
As a whole, in Latin America and the Caribbean, COVID-19 accounts for 4,163,093 confirmed cases, with 176,963 deaths. Compared to the European Union and the United States, it is factual to say that the impact of the coronavirus in the region is devastating.
But if the public health consequences are heartbreaking, the economic impacts are also consequential. Latin America and the Caribbean will see an average economic downturn of -8% in their GDP (excluding Venezuela in the computation); with GDP decreases such as: Peru -12%, Argentina -11,5%, México -9,4%, Brazil -6,8%, Chile -6.7%, Colombia -6,1%. Venezuela will see a staggering decline of -23,3% of GDP in which COVID-19 factors in with other concurrent causes like a regime economic collapse (including its once world-class oil production and exporting platform), and of course, the impact of economic sectorial sanctions from the U.S. adding to the inventory of challenges.
This context, inflicted by COVID-19 in Latin American and the Caribbean, poses a significant (and additional) challenge to U.S. foreign policy. Without doubt, the region must be a priority for the U.S.; it has been a key ally throughout history, includes the largest U.S. trading partner (Mexico), and, as a whole, it is an inevitable partner without coherent strategic attention since the days of the Alliance for Progress advanced by President John F. Kennedy. The lack of a solid bipartisan strategy towards Latin America and the Caribbean has opened the door to growing influence in all fronts (more likely to increase in this context), from Russia and China, an additional factor to consider in the need to develop and implement an ambitious agenda.
Photo: Medscape