Biden is taking his time, but he will soon announce his decision. Polls confirm that his candidacy will immediately head the group and that he is the candidate most likely to beat Trump if the elections were held today.
2020 Democratic Primaries
The Democratic primary to choose the standard-bearer, who will try to block Trump’s reelection, has an extensive list of candidates. In previous articles we analyzed the candidacy of Julián Castro, the only Latino in the race, former mayor of San Antonio and former secretary of Housing and Urban Development of the Obama administration. Similarly, that of the four women senators who embody the relevance of female leadership in the progressive-Democratic coalition—the charismatic Kamala Harris (California), the brave Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts), and the incisive and influential Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota) and Kirsten Gillibrand (New York). Then, we profiled the three other progressive senators in the race: Bernie Sanders, best-known for his incursion against Hillary Clinton in 2015—for many, the Vermont idealist; Sherrod Brown, the progressive pragmatist with union weight from Ohio, key state on the board of polling stations (who recently announced he is not running); and Cory Booker, the emerging and charismatic leader from New Jersey. Out of these candidates, Harris and Booker are two powerful representations of the African-American base, which is a fundamental elector of the Democratic Party.
A common denominator among all these candidacies is the novelty: both the joviality of the Democratic group and its emergence from the intersection of the most progressive spectrum of the party. Each one with his or her inflections makes up a scope that ranges from the center-left to the left of the diverse Democratic coalition, even though Castro’s candidacy would find its foundations in the Latino electorate.
In addition to the eight candidates written about, there is another group of candidates who have experience as governors: Terry McAuliffe, former governor of Virginia; Hickenlooper, former governor of Colorado; and Jay Inslee, governor of Washington state. Out of these, only the latter two have formalized their candidacy. Yet, McAuliffe openly admits to the idea and maintains visibility in the media; even without formalizing an exploratory committee, groups that promote his Presidential candidacy have constituted in many states. In addition to their experience and successful state government work, which constitutes a very relevant reference in the country, two of the candidates (Hickenlooper and McAuliffe) are successful businessmen, proved to function in government, with an economic approach very at the center of political discourse. The other, Inslee, is a career politician who has stood out for his environmental agenda as governor. All three have an inclusive social agenda, while being labeled as moderate for their great economic pragmatism. Finally, they have a significant advantage: good relations with the business community.
Beto O’Rourke is also up for bat. His senate race in 2018 gave him national visibility, which he took advantage of to project an intelligent and fresh image in his fight to represent Texas—a Republican bastion, so far—against the ineffable Ted Cruz.
The ideal candidate
Still, nothing is decided. Many wonder why the “group of governors”, with such strong trajectories, has not been able to break into the media with their aspirations? Similarly, why do those who have an emotional connection to the progressive movement also fail to show a strength that perceives them as presidential? The answer is that the nine candidates are still struggling to establish their viability. And those who already seem viable are not yet outlined as a reference to win, including Sanders, who looks far from being the polarizing factor of the progressive axis or the millennials, as he did in front of Clinton in 2015. At the moment, the poll projections are quite evenly distributed. Although it is early and there is time to take off, neither candidate looks like the unquestionable option destined to take back the White House—a strength that the novel Senator of Illinois, Barack Obama, displayed in 2008, when he challenged the seemingly inevitable candidacy of Hillary Clinton.
So, what is happening or what is missing? They answer could lie in Joe Biden’s possible candidature. And that pretension, though unannounced, has a lot of “gravitas”. The former Vice President not only has a well-earned image as a statesman, after 36 years in the Senate and eight as Vice President, but is also anchored in the mind of a huge part of the Democratic elector as the necessary leader in the current juncture. The one who could have defeated Trump in 2016, but did not run because the death of his son, the also Democratic leader in Delaware Beau Biden, prevented him to.
Once again, Biden demonstrated his integrity during his family tragedy. Back in December 1972, Joe Biden lost his first wife and daughter in a traffic accident in Delaware. His two sons, Beau and Hunter, were also in the car, but survived despite being critically injured. A couple weeks later, Joe Biden was sworn in as Senator at the hospital in Wilmington, where his sons were being treated. Beau’s passing in 2015 was hard on the Vice President, who allowed time to grief and opted out of the Democratic primaries. However, it is no secret that everyone was waiting for a Biden Presidency and strongly believed that, with him as standard-bearer, Trump would have bitten the dust of defeat in 2016. This sentiment holds true much more now, when, despite an expanding economy, the magnate is faced with a scandal and unpopularity of 60% rejection in the US population.
His strength and sobriety when faced with the blows of life are one of the reasons why the charismatic Joe Biden is rooted in the heart of Democratic militancy. Furthermore, we must take into account the role of his current wife and educator, Dr. Jill Biden, who has great prestige and influence in the university sector; as well as the formidable fact that Biden has a close, emotional, and visible relationship with the super influential Barack and Michelle Obama, who, without a doubt, would have a fundamental participation in Biden’s presidential campaign if he announced it.
Biden’s career for the Middle and working class, Women’s rights, and Latinos
Biden was one of the Lions of the Senate. From a courageous middle and working class defender, a gender equality promoter without hesitation, a champion of diversity inclusion that defines American society, to a very long career in foreign policy. He is a leader known and respected around the world in foreign affairs, security, and defense, as well as for his work in the Judicial Affairs Committee—where the federal judges and magistrates to the Supreme Court appointments are decided. Biden is recognized by both Democrats and Republicans as a bipartisan consensus builder. In fact, one of his strengths is his great ability to maintain friendship with his opponents in political work. John McCain, for example, considered him a brother of life despite his deep differences of opinion on thorny issues.
Finally, Biden has another huge and visible quality: his firm commitment to the working and middle classes. It is his brand. He has never stopped authentically being a figure that understands the struggle of these sectors. In fact, he is still a man of modest personal fortune and frugal life—very present in the community. He is one of those leaders who travels all the time, from Washington DC to Delaware (Biden was born in Pennsylvania, but lived and represented Delaware in the Senate all his life) on the train, with the people. It is not strange to see him savoring a hamburger in the bar of a popular tavern or snacking on his favorite ice cream cone in the midst of the amazement of the locals. Biden has retained the emotional and connecting thread with his origins: a family of Irish, working class immigrants. But, at the same time, economically, Biden breathes, more than pragmatism, common sense. He understands that, in order to achieve equal opportunities and fair distribution of wealth, there must be an effective system, where individual initiative and entrepreneurship are irreplaceable. Consequently, Biden is a leader perceived as a spokesman for the working class, but with rational economic proposals.
As if this were not enough, other demographic groups, such as Latinos and women, see Biden as an unconditional ally. He has proved himself as a promoter of immigration reform with a path to citizenship and the defense of young dreamers. From his own experience as a descendant of Irish Catholics, he knows what immigration represents in US history; and recognizes the damage caused by the prejudice of some Protestant supremacist sectors towards Irish or Italian Catholic minorities. And in terms of supporting women’s rights, Biden’s social agenda champions fundamental causes for women such as the fight against sexual abuse, domestic violence, and gender equality.
Biden beyond borders
His foreign policy agenda has always elevated Latin America as a priority. He understands the Venezuelan drama like few others. The left and the right of Latin America recognize his commitment to the defense of human rights, free press, and the return to democracy in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. Europe recognizes him as a valid interlocutor in the triangulation of hemispheric initiatives. And during the Barack Obama’s presidency, he was in charge of efforts to deepen cooperation for development with Central America and the Caribbean. This included proposals to migrate the energy platform of these countries to renewable sources, such as solar and wind, and thus break the costly oil dependence for these countries.
Biden is taking his time, but he will soon announce his decision. Polls confirm that his candidacy will immediately head the group and that he is the candidate most likely to beat Trump if the elections were held today. No wonder he’s the opponent Republicans fear the most. People believe he could help bridge the established leadership and the new generation that has emerged in this primary, from which he could recruit his running mate and an extraordinary cabinet. Analysis agrees that the Democrats have three ways to reach the magical number of the 270 electoral votes that ensure the Presidency. On the other hand, Trump’s only chance of winning must include Florida, where, incidentally, the polls also reveal that Biden could beat the incumbent.
Let’s not overthink this. The former Vice President is about to change the landscape of the United States with a sticker that reads “Joe Biden 2020”, which will be seen in many cars throughout the territory of this vast geography.
Para español lea Al Navío: Ahí viene Joe Biden y viene al rescate de los demócratas