After Jair Bolsonaro won the Brazilian first presidential round by a large margin in October 2018, the former Brazilian president, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, published an article in the newspaper El País. In his op-ed, the social democrat offered an answer to the question, “How come a barely known political leader, an ‘obscure legislator,’ from an ‘almost inexistent’ political party—the Social Liberal Party—obtained such a big victory?” Days later, Bolsonaro got over 55% of the votes in the October 28 elections. He is the sixteenth military officer to serve as president of Brazil—third to do so electorally.
Cardoso and many other analysts agreed: Bolsonaro won the elections because the electorates were reacting to concerns over violence, organized crime, corruption, and one of the worst unemployment rates in the world. In Brazil, 13% of unemployment rate equals to over 12 million people that are actively looking for work but cannot find any.
According to recent estimates, the population of the Federal Republic of Brazil exceeds 208 million. It is the country with the largest population of Portuguese speakers—and Catholics—in the world.
Its territory, 3.28 million square miles, makes it the fifth-largest country on Earth. It makes up 47% of the South American surface and has four time zones. Brazil borders with ten countries and has about 4.6 thousand miles of coast. Two imaginary lines cross its territory: the Equator and the Tropic of Capricorn. Given its vast expansion, after the United States, it is the country with the biggest number of airports: 34 international and over 2450 regional. Three Brazilian cities fall under the megalopolis category: 21 million inhabitants in Sao Paulo; 12 million in Rio de Janeiro; and almost 6 million in Belo Horizonte.
Out of the 2.7 million square miles that make up the Amazonia—the largest tropical forest in the world, distributed in 9 countries—a little more than half of it correspond to Brazil. In 2011, the Amazonia was declared one of the seven natural wonders of the world. It hosts the most significant number of plant and animal species: over 4 million.
Scholars maintain that the deforestation processes initiated five decades ago have reduced the Amazonia rainforest by at least 20%. This destruction was intended to favor industries such as livestock, agriculture, wood, oil and gas, and fishing; trade of exotic species; and constructions of villages, roads, and dams. In addition to the human-led reduction of the Amazonia, climate change has also impacted the region with sporadic fires—hundreds of thousands—, water contamination, so-called “invasive species,” and increasingly numerous and complex urban developments.
The gradual and sustained destruction of the “lung of the world” also produces human and cultural devastation. Between 15 and 20 isolated indigenous groups, whose identity was unknown, have been forced to surface. Some of their habitats were razed entirely. Territorial occupation lead by landowners, companies, and urban promoters, in collaboration with the police, military, politicians, and even false environmentalists, not only has expulsed them from their territory but also led to violence and death. The NGO Conselho Indigenista Missionário estimates that, between 2003 and 2019, at least 1009 indigenous people were murdered. They are also killing Quilombolas—descendants from former slaves who reside in rural areas—, despite them being recognized in the 1988 Constitution to own the lands they inhabit. In 2017 alone, 70 Quilombolas were assassinated; there are an estimated 15 thousand of them.
That was the scenario when Bolsonaro, on the first day of his term, signed a decree allowing to Ministry of Agriculture to delimit indigenous lands. It was his first impure step towards a policy destined to favor the interests of farmers and businesses over protecting the Amazonia. For example, in just a few months of governing, his administration approved the use of 262 pesticides, a third of which have substances prohibited in Europe. Since Bolsonaro took office, deforestation and the burning of territories have increased. As I write this article, in late August, the fires of the Amazonia rainforest are shown in newspapers throughout the world.
In sectors of the Brazilian society and among European governments, they are sounding the alarms. Jair Bolsonaro, who some call the “Trump of the Tropics,” is at the head of a government adamant to sacrificing the Amazonia to transform it into a lucrative field. The reports cannot be more alarming: increasing deforestation, a larger number of intentional fires, and indigenous leaders are ever more subject to risky situations.
In recent days, Bolsonaro stopped hiding his plan. He dismissed the director of the Institute for Space Research (INPE), an entity of the Brazilian State, responsible for reporting the progress of deforestation. INPE, which is recognized by the scientific communities in Brazil and around the world, should be autonomous. Now the Institute has broken the agreements that supported the continuity of an international mechanism to finance reforestation projects in Brazil known as the Amazonia Fund. Bolsonaro also insulted the heads of Norway—the primary donor —and Germany; both have suspended donations due to the apparent evidence of what is happening. Some ministers futilely attempted to minimize the situation, call the allegations “exaggerated,” and insist that the government will respect the agreements. In reality, the exploitation of wealth is gaining ground against those who struggle to preserve species and stop the disaster that is climate change.
In recent weeks, the world saw the devastating images of the Amazonia fires with pain and anguish. Meanwhile, the heads of the seven largest IMF-described advanced economies gathered at the G7 meeting was held in Biarritz, France. Bolsonaro met environmentalist approaches and proposals for cooperation to placate and avoid the burning of the Amazonia with a sovereign and arrogant contumacy. This event highlighted the importance of defining a multilateral agenda in the coming years to avoid irrational or unsustainable exploitation of the Amazonia. Simultaneously, there should be consequent mechanisms of cooperation and economic compensation for the countries that host this fundamental resource for the existence of humanity.
A member of the Group of 20 (G20), Brazil is the principal economy in the continent and the sixth or seventh on the planet, depending on the raking criteria. It is known for its agricultural, mining, and oil sectors. Outstandingly, it is the fourth agricultural power in the world after the United States, China, and India. For example, it is the world’s leading producer of oranges by an overwhelming advantage. Although it does not position in the mining sector at either Chile or Bolivia’s level, Brazil is world-class mining power: primary producer niobium, second of iron and bauxite, third of manganese, in addition to gold, nickel, copper, phosphates, precious stones, and many others. The data of its hydrocarbon industry is surprising. Every day it produces around 2.5 million barrels of oil and about 110 million cubic feet of natural gas. Today, Brazil is recognized for having developed remarkable expertise for both oil search and operations in the seabed.
At some point, the potential of the Brazilian economy was compared to that of Russia, India, China, and South Africa to visualize a political-economic alliance called BRICS. This coalition was envisioned as a new axis or as a counterweight to the transatlantic hegemony around the United States with the mentioned G7 and G20. The BRICS group is certainly there, but it has fallen short of defining the course of the planet that its creators and some analysts attribute to this block. Of course, it is due to internal complications in each of the countries and China’s evident determination to use its influence on many strategies at the same time.
There is a lot to say about Brazil’s vast and considerable industrial development. In addition to the three industries already mentioned, Brazil stands out for its production of ships and airplanes, paper and cellulose, and pharmaceuticals, its sanitation, transportation, urban cleaning, construction, hospital instruments, and automobile industry. In 2018, Brazil produced almost 2.7 million automobiles, placing the country in ninth place close behind Spain. Over 60% of its exports are industrialized goods. Among them, electronic equipment, aircraft, textiles, footwear, coffee, orange juice, and vehicles. All of this—plus other items that could be included in the list—represents almost 60% of the industrial production of South America.
Before moving on from analyzing Brazil’s industries, it is worth noting it was the top tourist destination in South America in 2018. It welcomed over 6.6 million tourists.
Simultaneous to this complex industrial and productive development, violence has not ceased to grow during recent decades. According to the numbers of the Violence Atlas, 65,602 people were murdered in 2017 at a rate of 31.6 deaths per 100 thousand inhabitants. This number is three times the indicator that, according to the World Health Organization, defines a “violence epidemic” —10 intentional homicides per 100 thousand. From 2006 to 2013, 553 thousand people were assassinated. The most vulnerable victims are between 15 and 29 years old, live in poor areas, and are part of the drug cartels or the so-called militias. These groups fight each other for territories, routes, and predominance in the business of transporting drugs. They mainly traffic cocaine that comes from Colombia, Peru, or Bolivia, to Europe and Asia. A report in The New York Times reported that mortality is especially high in states like Acre—which borders with Peru and Colombia—or Ceará—with coasts on the Atlantic—, because they are located at the beginning and end of the drug route in Brazil. Another shocking statistic detailed that 50 million people had a friend or relative who was killed. Moreover, conservative calculations estimate that at least 8 million people have weapons.
With respect to 2019, during the first two months of Bolsonaro’s government, the mortality rate has reduced by almost 20%. We shall see how sustainable policies promoting policy brutality are. According to the governor of Rio de Janeiro, Wilson Witzel, the police forces kill a delinquent every 5 hours in that state. At the same time, requisites to purchase guns and train on how to use them are becoming more flexible.
Analysts maintain that Bolsonaro’s affiliation with Trump is not forged, but that the former military officer has a genuine interest to adopt Trump’s way of acting and governing. For instance, the administration’s response concerning matters of security is less of public policy and more a response related to his liking and ideal solution. Recent events prove how his impulsiveness, personalism, and arbitrariness have been elevated to government procedures. For example, his reaction to the electoral result in Argentina; his homophobic attacks and declarations against feminist organizations; his praise to key members of Brazil’s dictatorship that governed between 1964 and 1985; his disregard for the chancellor of France when he canceled a meeting to go to the barbershop; his tendency for historical revisionism; and his son’s appointment as ambassador to the United States, overruling the professional and meritocratic tradition of the legendary Itamaraty. Some of these actions have severe consequences. If Bolsonaro decides to drop out of Mercosur after the upcoming Argentinian elections on October 27, the trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union may dissolve before it is signed. This trade agreement, 20 years in the making and nearing its materialization, could equate the ambitions of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Even though Bolsonaro is just starting his first term, which will end in 2022, polls show that he has lost popularity very fast. However, many Brazilians value the structural reforms led by the great Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes. These include continuing the labor reform—which began in the government of Michel Temer—, sorting public accounts, reforming social security, simplifying tax payments, privatizing some state-owned companies, and, vitally, fighting corruption. These announcements and measures have produced results in a brief period of time, and there are already symptoms that indicate businesses and investors from other countries are preparing to operate in Brazil.
The president of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, has suggested that there is a distinction between Bolsonaro’s statements and his actions. He states that the president has not hindered either the Supreme Court or Congress. So far, his unlawful decisions have been refuted and denied for being unconstitutional. Although controversial in his speech, Maia argues that he is not in management. And that, so far, he has respected democratic institutions. Bolsonaro, pragmatic in economic matters, plans to travel to China in October, with a portfolio of projects that includes ports, airports, trains, and energy. He also aims to increase economic exchanges with Russia and the United States.
I have read analyses of the difficulty it represents for such a vast nation, in every way, that politics is governed and dominated by interests and quotas rather than by ideological differences. In addition to the challenge of managing the relationship with a fractional parliament and generating a favorable environment for the creation of companies and businesses, Bolsonaro must face poverty, which is around 26%. Specialists highlight a trend: 64% of women of African descent, without a spouse, and with children under 14 years of age, live in poverty. One more fact, noted by FAO: in 2017, 5.2 million Brazilians did not meet the minimum levels of food intake. Finally, 8% of children under 6 are outside the educational system.
Bolsonaro is facing the challenge (which is made difficult by his questionable ideas and his way of understanding politics) of managing Brazil out of the economic crisis and leading it to the fulfillment of the repeated promise, according to which in three decades it will become one of the powers of the world. However, he will need more than an economic reform program to achieve that. Policies towards protecting the Amazon, reducing poverty, and respecting minorities are fundamental. Still, Bolsonaro must also face the obstacle that he created for himself. His tendency to respond to offensive and virulently challenges the mechanisms of the coexistence of democracy.