The COVID-19 is taking too many lives way from us, and the economic and social implications are just devastating, surfacing the inequities of our societies.
To this point, let’s direct our attention to the implications and consequences the pandemic has had for Latinos in the U.S. First, job loss across the U.S. has spiked, and an astonishing 33 million Americans have claimed unemployment insurance. However, when we dive into the numbers, the demographic most affected by household income loss are Latinos, as well illustrated in these numbers:
Second, Latinos are among the most affected in the number of people infected with the illness or toll on human life, along with African-Americans. Both together appear to account for a larger share of COVID-19 hospitalizations nationally than their percentage of the population. And in New York City, death rates per 100,000 people are highest among blacks and Hispanics. The U.S. population is currently 18.3% Latino. The CDC shared racial/ethnic data on provisional death counts for COVID-19 on May 6, 2020. 16.6% of U.S. COVID-19 deaths are among Latinos. Yet, when CDC used weighted population distributions, the Latino death rate became a more out-sized 26.9%.
Now, let’s elaborate beyond the obvious and painful drama this represents in the U.S. and think about implications in the hemisphere. U.S. Latino families are the source of economic sustainability through remittances to many families in Mexico, Cuba and the Caribbean, Central America, and countries like Venezuela these days. The interruption of this capital flows will further destabilize the region and, in many ways, induce further currents and trends of migration into the U.S. To have an idea of the magnitude, Central America received more than 22 billion of U.S. dollars in remittances from the U.S. in 2018. These resources are essential in El Salvador, where they equate to 21.4% of GDP; in Honduras, 20.0%; in Guatemala, 12.0%; in Nicaragua, 11.3%; and in Belize, 5.0%.
On the other hand, countries like Ecuador have seen the worst days during the pandemic. While in countries like Costa Rica and Chile are innovating and responding, the crisis is impacting and collapsing healthcare networks across the hemisphere. In countries like Venezuela, dangerous commingling with a pre-existing humanitarian crisis and economic collapse, which has expanded, leveraging on the state of emergency of the pandemic, furthers social controls of the oppressive regime of Nicolas Maduro. If the crisis continues in Venezuela, with neighboring countries like Colombia (which have been the safe harbor where millions of Venezuelan migrants have gone over the past few years) also affected by the pandemic, one can only imagine the confluence of social problems that will erupt. Consequently, requiring multilateral action under U.S. and European leadership, already under stress in their corresponding crises.
Moreover, in a global economic slow down or recession, Latin American commodity and energy exports-driven economies will be severely affected. To give an idea of the impact for Latin American economies, here are some of the projections of GDP decline of key players in the region according to the estimates of London-based Consensus Economics group:
Based on these impacts, we are expecting GDP forecast to show declines as follows: Argentina -5.4 %, Brasil -3.2 Chile -2.9, Mexico -6.2, -18.1, Colombia -2.0, and Perú -3.7. In the Central American Northern Triangle, we are estimating a decline in economic activity as well: El Salvador -2.6%, Guatemala -0.7%, Honduras -1.5%. Numbers are similar throughout the region, highlighting the dimension of the crisis, and the call for U.S. leadership through multilateral institutions and cooperation. In that regard, it is inexplicable that the Trump administration pulled out of our country’s commitments with the World Health Organization (WHO) and froze resources allocated to the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO). The latter, prima facie, compromises the availability of millions of much-needed dollars, including 110 million dedicated aid for the humanitarian relief of the Venezuelan migration crisis in Latin America.
A crisis such as COVID-19 calls for statesmanship and steady leadership in the United States. Failing to step up with cooperation in times of crisis in the Western Hemisphere opens the window to a greater influence of China and Russia in the Americas, something we will soon regret.