Once again, Trump has proven that the motivation behind his choices is demagogic, often playing trial and error until he finds what suits him in front of local audiences, segmented by electoral purposes. And, in many cases, he operated to favor his interests, business or personal.
This week, without caution or explanation, Trump abandoned the Kurds in Syria—one of the most reliable US allies in the Middle East in the fight against ISIS. This order happened after a phone call with President Erdogan of Turkey, showing once more his tendency to get along with authoritarian figures. Immediately, Turkey proceeded with a military offensive in northeastern Syria, after Trump licensed him to attack the Kurds, whom the US had supported.
It is as if Trump either did not know about or forgot that the US strategy, of containing and finally regaining territory controlled by ISIS in Syria, was only effective because thousands of armed Kurds fought in the war day after day, with US support.
Trump did not coordinate his impulsive decision with intelligence or national security officers of his administration—much less with the principal European Union allies. According to experts, this turn will not only create more volatility in the region but also could contribute to a resurgence of ISIS and aggravate tensions within NATO.
Trump has shown unintelligible deference, for a long time, towards Erdogan. This Turkish president, by the way, presided over the opening of Trump’s properties in Istanbul—a million-dollar profit operation for the businessman-president. You don’t have to be too malicious to ask yourself if some bribery could exist between the two mandatories. Furthermore, this crucial change of circumstances and US commitments favors the interests of Russia and, in particular, of its also authoritarian leader, Vladimir Putin, in Syria. There is, then, another question: What do the Russians know about Trump, that he does not dare to stand firm on any issue that clashes with Putin’s ambitious global pretensions?
The reaction of European leaders leaves no room for doubts about the consequences of this improvised decision. The Foreign Minister of France, Jean-Yves Le Drian, said: “Any unilateral action could have significant humanitarian consequences and would not bring about the conditions necessary for the safe and voluntary return of the refugees to their areas of origin. It would undermine the stability of this region and the work we are carrying out directly on the ground.”
The Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the German parliament, Norbert Röttgen, was even blunter: “The US troop withdrawal from northern Syria constitutes another abrupt and destabilizing foreign policy move by the United States. This damages US credibility and stability in the entire region. The planned Turkish offensive is contrary to international law and further militarizes the Kurdish conflict.”
The European Commission spokeswoman Maja Kocijancic added: “Renewed armed hostilities in the northeast will not only exacerbate civilian suffering and lead to massive displacement but will also risk severely undermining current political efforts.”
It is an alarming behavior pattern, to say the least. In a tweet, which raises concerns over evidence of traits that demand psychiatric analysis, Trump attributed the measure to his “great and unmatched wisdom;” proving he does not realize the important role multilateralism plays in such delicate matters and how crucial it is to keep precarious balances that move us away from conflicts of greater scope and consequences.
There is an underlying lesson in this thorny issue for those whose strategies depend on Trump’s criteria or support, especially where Russian interests are involved. Just as he left the Kurds in the open field, exposed to the greatest sieges, so he could leave anyone in the middle of the desert. Without warning, without reason, and without a drop of water.