This week, the uncertainty climbed to a new critical point. Official figures revealed that the economy contracted by 32.9% in the second quarter of this year, which, coupled with large unemployment, confirms the depth of the economic recession in which the United States finds itself in.
This recession (shall we say it?), is a consequence of the mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic by the Trump administration. On the one hand, their hesitation, their indecision, as well as their lack of diligence and lack of coordination with governors and mayors to adopt efficient containment and mitigation measures, have made the United States the epicenter of the global pandemic, prolonging the health crisis and postponing who knows until when the definitive and certain reopening of economic activity. And then, there is the erratic way in which the economic sectors assisted by CARES legislation have been prioritized; for example, as of June, 55% of small Latino-owned businesses still had not receive Paycheck Protection Program credits.
Trump had a difficult re-election ahead of him, even amid an expanding economy. So it is not difficult to understand how everything is further complicated in the context of a recession. And the surveys reflect it. Hence, the rhetorical maneuver of attacking, without any foundation whatsoever, the integrity of the US electoral process, questioning the legitimacy of voting by mail, or worse yet, talking about postponing the date of the presidential elections without having the power to do so. Pure nonsense, however you look at it.
Voting by mail (or absentee voting) is a legal and legitimate tool, available to any citizen, according to the laws of their state. It is a guarantee designed to facilitate our fundamental right to vote. And there has never been any indication that its exercise increases the opportunity for electoral fraud. In fact, bipartisan studies show that the incidence of mail vote error or fraud is less than 0.00025%. That is, less than miniscule. It is harmless or inconsequential. Republicans know this very well. Even Trump votes by mail. And not to mention changing the date of the presidential and congressional elections. That can only be done by Congress itself, modifying the law; and states are obligated to hold elections on that date. As a detail, it is worth remembering that never, even during the civil war, were presidential elections suspended in the United States.
Why, then, does Trump employ this anti-vote-by-mail rhetoric or speak of the suspension of holding elections mandated by law? There are those who think that he does this to distract attention from negative economic news. Covering the sun with your thumb, in other words. Because the economic situation is more than bad news: it is a reality that weighs on the daily life of each home, whether that’s talked a lot or little in the news or social networks. That discomfort is there and translates into votes for a change, or electoral demotivation on the part of independents, who otherwise would have considered voting for Trump, and even voters who did so in 2016. Not for nothing, support for Trump is today below the one it had in the 2016 elections.
It is crystal clear. Trump has set out to undermine citizen confidence in the electoral system. In the exercise of voting by mail, a fundamental tool to protect the health of citizens in the midst of the pandemic, as well as a resource for the voters most vulnerable or affected by the crisis. It aims to undermine the confidence of the population in the elections, which, together with the suppression of voters, constitutes a tactic that is typical of those who seek to abuse democracy, dredge institutionality, and seek an electoral result tailored to them, in the midst of abstention. It is also a distinctive rhetorical resource of demagogues who promote irreconcilable division in society as a way to muddy governance, if they are not favored with a result, and even judicialize electoral results to prevail in the midst of chaos. For this very reason, the Republican Party leaders in Congress themselves reacted in disagreement with Trump’s tweet storm against the electoral system. We cannot forget that they are also campaigning for their own re-elections against the socioeconomic adversity that prevails in the country, and these statements by Trump do not help them at all in their districts and states.
The world watches in amazement as the White House tenant acts like a caudillo. If statements like Trump’s set off alarms in the international community when issued by dictators who oppress their people, what will it be like when they come from the ruler of the most powerful country on earth? Everything indicates that the insane drift will persist … until the vote, present or absent or by mail, puts an end to such abundant and dangerous fickleness.
Photo: Common Cause