Two weeks ago, I published an end-of-year article on the scenario developing in U.S. politics entering the New Year. However, a recent change in the Secretary of Defense requires me to attach a second analysis to it.
Trump begins to operate in a different scenario: with the House of Representatives under Democrat control, and an increasing worry amongst Republicans.
His government is at a delicate crossroads. First, his Chief of Staff John Kelly retires, and the Vice President’s Chief of Staff Nick Ayers passes on the opportunity. How to explain all this? While we were speculating on the different reasons—even in the context of former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s declarations in which he said that Trump is “pretty undisciplined, doesn’t like to read, doesn’t read briefing reports, doesn’t like to get into the details of a lot of things, [and doesn’t share a] common value system,” because he has trouble abiding by the law¬¬—general Mattis submits a resignation letter to Trump in which he reveals the reasons behind his decision.
Months ago, Republican Senator Bob Corker, who will retire in December and has been the voice of reason and influence in his party and conservative groups, said that three people separate Trump’s administration from chaos: Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, White House Chief of Staff general John Kelly, and Secretary of Defense general Mattis. Now, all three men are out. Mattis’s resignation is enlightening. At the core of his resignation letter, in the context of Trump’s sudden decision to withdraw the troops from Syria, is Mattis questioning the eccentric President for not understanding that planetary freedom and security depends on a historical system of political-military commitments expressed in NATO. Precisely, that fundamental system is in crisis, once again under the Trump administration, now with the decision adopted in relation to Syria.
Senator Marco Rubio, a very disciplined Trump ally to date among Republicans, retweeted a Russian Embassy trill applauding Trump’s decision with regards to Syria and added: “I found someone who is supportive of the decision to retreat from Syria.” Faced with Mattis’s resignation, the experienced public servant that is former Vice President Biden expressed his voice on the same social network saying: “I’ve had disagreements with Secretary Mattis, but we shared the view — long-held by Democrats and Republicans in this nation — that respect for our allies and a commitment to the most important and effective alliances in history made America safer. It is clear this administration has abandoned those core American beliefs. Secretary Mattis’ presence and his voice of reason and experience will be missed in the Pentagon and the Situation Room.”
With the presidential elections at the door and after an electoral defeat in the midterms of a rotundity not seen since the Watergate scandal in 1970, Trump faces a perfect storm. An adversary Congress not only because of the Democrat majority in the House, but also due to the growing worries amongst many Republicans, willing to exercise their controlling and scrutinizing faculty; an increasingly compromising investigation led by prosecutor Mueller; and as if that were not enough, an economy whose stock market begins to fit the negative impact of tax cuts, which have substantially increased the fiscal deficit, the uncertainty of the trade war with China, and the rise in interest rates; all of which create—very true—expectations of an economic slowdown.
This is how the political scenario of the United States is shaping at the end of the year, anticipating that the conflict and dysfunction that Trump has engendered in Washington will continue during 2019. What consoles our worries is the certainty that it won’t be boring. Certainly, the debate between presidential candidates against Trump on the way to the 2020 elections will be substantial and far from boring.
Para español lea El Nacional: Qué le depara el 2019 a los Estados Unidos
Nos leemos por twitter @lecumberry