A year ago, on July 1, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) won the Mexican presidential elections with 53% of the votes, becoming the first left-wing president of the country. On July 8 of this year, the Woodrow Wilson Center hosted a conference titled “AMLO & the Fourth Transformation: One Year After His Historic Election Victory,” which basically discussed; How much progress has President López Obrador made in his Fourth Transformation?
Undoubtedly, Mexico has a lot of poverty and a big portion of its population feels both excluded and disenfranchised. For that reason, Lopez Obrador was elected on a promise to reduce inequality, fight poverty, and make people feel more part of the system. Also, Mexicans had very high expectations for his administration. Now the international community is interested in learning how those expectations are being met and how the country is faring so far. In that manner, the four great analysts of the conference helped us explore different aspects regarding this field.
As we have seen, Lopez Obrador promised a Fourth Transformation in Mexico. This transformation includes ending corruption, improving the economy, reducing violence, creating infrastructure, and fighting inequality, poverty, and exclusion. In other words, it is about establishing a true democracy.
The first panelist, Jorge Buendia, director of the polling firm Buendía & Laredo, put in context what happened with the image of Lopez Obrador, who is seen as a charismatic person, but with a volatile approval rate. Recently, Lopez Obrador has 70% of approval and 25% of disapproval. These numbers are not surprising compared with past presidents. However, the main question should be; What is the difference between the popularity of Obrador and that of the others? This answer is given by the high number of strong supporters that Lopez Obrador has and the string of electoral support for the marina. At this stage, we can be sure that 40% of the Mexican public strongly supports Lopez Obrador thanks to what he has been doing and the popularity of his policies.
Most of the panelists agreed that GDP growth is fundamental for Lopez Obrador to sustain healthy approval rates. Yet, an Index of retrospective evaluations shows the economy has neither changed nor improved much. Also, according to an index of consumer confidence, people do not consider that the current situation of the economy is much better. While 41% consider that the economy is worse now than one year ago, only 14% agree that it is better nowadays. In summary, these numbers reflect that the expectations regarding the economy increased a lot after Lopez Obrador’s victory. However, we are witnessing right now that behind Lopez Obrador’s approval is Mexicans expectations, but not reality. People are respecting and expecting that he will fulfill his promises, but at the same time, AMLO’s approval rates will still go down and will probably stabilize around October, Jorge said.
Blanca Heredia, professor of the Center for Economic Research and Teaching (CIDE), emphasized that Lopez Obrador understands corruption not as a legal problem, but as a moral one. She also showed the case of China’s economic miracle which ended poverty. Being hopeful she added, “No emperor likes it when his clothes fade or disappear. Our version of this backlash powered by the forgotten is an opportunity—I hope we may not waste it.”
Maria Amparo Casar, a CIDE Professor-Researcher, started remembering the main question of the seminar; how much progress. She stated that progress can be measured by what the president promised in his campaign political manifesto. She argued that it is too soon to judge results by growth in investment, due to a complicated perception of corruption. “The question is not if Mexico is better now than 7 months ago, but if there are reasons to think that it will be better any time soon or even in the medium term given his policies.” Nevertheless, she focused on judging trends and used process parameters to appraise where this government is going. She proclaimed that she is in agreement with Lopez Obrador in regards to the state of Mexico when his term began, which was in ruins because of policymaking, violence, inequality, and corruption, after 30 years of the neoliberal rule.
Maria, less optimistic, recognized that Lopez Obrador has developed policies to put an end to these previously mentioned problems. However, she does not find a notable difference among the policies previously tried by past governments. Therefore, she is not sure that remarkable results will be achieved. Especially, she does not consider that his projects are the best solution. For example, Prospera, in which cash is given to the poor, will never eliminate poverty nor guarantee better opportunities for the population. Beyond, she associates this project with neoliberal policies. “What we are witnessing is the creation of literally millions of citizens receiving not better social services nor making good promises of all the rights,” Maria stated.
Finally, Antonio Ortiz-Mena, former Head of Economic Affairs at the Embassy of Mexico in the US, believed that there was a lot of corruption and inefficiency which nowadays remain. He stated that, while some budget cuts were necessary, many others were not too wise. The government has really ambitious economic plans and, for this reason, there needs to be a capable and independent State. While institutions could help implement the proposed reforms, the cuts have weakened both the federal government and the independent regulatory institutions. To end, Antonio recognized that this is a whole scale change, not a small crisis. “These are tectonic plates moving and we won’t go back to the old ways of doing things. So, one way to create certainty among an ocean of uncertainty that will remain uncertain for a number of years is through the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA).”
As Mexico works towards creating a better economy, the president should focus on the sector that has most suffered in Mexico: the middle class. The proclamation in the letter of resignation of the Secretary of Finance and Public Credit, Carlos Manuel Urzua, does not look like the government is off to a good start.
“There were many discrepancies in economic matters. Some of them because this administration has made decisions about public policies without enough substance.”
